The Warwick Stakes will be held at Randwick on Saturday. The course proper was rated a Heavy 9 on Thursday and with further showers forecast, Randwick is likely to remain in the Heavy range on raceday.
The Carlyon Stakes will be held at Mooney Valley this weekend. The track was rated a Dead 4 on Thursday. With fine weather over the next couple of days in Melbourne, the track is likely to border on Good/Dead on raceday.
Earthquake was the highest rated 2YO last season and remains to be the horse to beat in the Group 2 Silver Shadow Stakes (Sydney Race 4, 1200m). The Blue Diamond Stakes winner has a great record over 1200m with her only beaten run over the trip being in the Golden Slipper. She has shown that she can handle the Heavy condition, and she’s very versatile as she can settle anywhere in the field. Earthquake will be at short odds but she should win.
Gerald Ryan has shown tremendous faith in Lester Grace by putting him in a non-claiming race on Oakfield Commands in the Show County Quality (Sydney Race 5, 1200m). Grace has great affiliation with the gelding, winning twice on him in the past 3 starts. Oakfield Commands has won on Heavy condition before, and he has a fantastic record over 1200m, winning 6 times and placed a further 4 times from 13 starts over the trip. Matter of fact, Oakfield Commands has been unbeaten at 1200m at Randwick winning on all 3 occasions. Currently at $13.00 fixed odds, I believe Oakfield Command is over the odds and is a value bet.
All the facts & figures have point to Messene being the likely winner of the Group 2 Warwick Stakes (Sydney Race 6, 1400m). This lightly raced 6YO had made a great return in the Missile Stakes (1200m) a fortnight ago finishing a close 2nd to Sweet Idea. Stepping up to 1400m on Saturday suits as Messene’s main aim this Spring is the Epsom Handicap. Though he could only finish 7th in his only run on Heavy track in the Doncaster Handicap earlier this year, I am inclined to think he was simply coming to the end of his preparation. Messene is by Lonhro and I am pretty confident that he can handle the wet condition on Saturday.
The Sydney visitor Kencella can take home the Carlyon Stakes at Mooney Valley on Saturday (Melbourne Race 8, 1000m). The Chris Waller-trained 5YO will be having his first starts since Group 1 The Galaxy in March. Kencella is unbeaten 1st up winning 2 from 2. Waller has tuned Kencella for his 1st up run with 2 (900m) barrier trials. Winning twice and placed once from 3 starts over 1000m, Kencella is ready for a first up kill.
By Owens Wong, Editor
