Craig Young’s Analysis On The 2014 Melbourne Cup

If seeing is believing, well, the Melbourne Cup conundrum is all over for the Aussie trained thoroughbred. The Japanese stayer Admire Rakti has rivals in this part of the world well and truly over powered.

Especially those that received wind-burn when Admire Ratki cruised on by in the Caulfield Cup 17 days ago. First time out in Australia, Japan’s second tier stayer sat wide thoroughout and then produced the type of finish that indicated the Melbourne Cup was awaiting.

And Zac Purton has retained the ride. A one time angry young Australian jockey, who has rose to the top in Hong Kong. The toughest racing jurisdiction for global riders and Purton was crowned King last season.

So Admire Ratki gave them a start, covered ground, and put paid to rivals in a couple of strides when winning at Caulfield and he received a .5kg penalty for winning that cup.

There was a time when winning the Caulfield Cup meant an instant 2.5kg plus when you rocked up at Flemington on the first Tuesday in November.

Can you believe last Saturday’s Lexus Stakes winner at Flemington, the Aussie Signoff, copped a 1kg penalty? Signoff’s out to do a Shocking which completed that double in 2009.

Not likely for Admire Ratki would have streeted the Lexus mob judging on what was displayed at Caulfield.

The only one from the first-leg of the famed cups double to have any hope on Tuesday is the third placed Lucia Valentina. Trained by the Newcastle good-guy, family man and workaholic, Kris Lees Lucia Valentina didn’t handle Caulfield and the final 400m sectionals were on par with Admire Ratki.

But will Lucia Valentina get two-miles? You can bank on Admire Ratki doing it for you only have to remember the last time the Japanese horse contested the Melbourne Cup.

That was back in 2006 and Delta Rock, third in the Caulfield Cup, beat fellow country horse Pop Rock. The pair streeted the rest.

Now last year’s Caulfield Cup winner Fawkner may well be the Aussie saviour. Racing benefactor, Melbourne Cup scholar, Lloyd Williams is behind Fawkner.

He knows how to win the big one having won four already. Fawkner goes into the Melbourne Cup off a courageous second in a fast run Cox Plate. A history making edition for it was taken out by the Irish galloper Adelaide.

Fawkner was brave and this one finished sixth in the Melbourne Cup last year. You know Williams will  have Fawkner primed for the two miles, for his private training property leaves nothing to spare.

What about the remaining 10 international raiders if you take Admire Ratki out of the equation?

The global thoroughbred banker, Dubai’s ruler, Sheik Mohammed of Godolphin fame, is back again. He has Cavalryman, which failed last time when contesting this cup, and Willing Foe revved up.

Mighty change for local jockeys Craig Williams (Cavalryman) and James McDonald (Willing Foe) have been signed up. Smart move considering a couple of his entrants have been slaughtered by overseas stars including one Frankie Dettorie.

One time champion European jockey Johnny Murtagh, who told this scribe when in Australia as an apprentice many moons ago, the Randwick rise, was “nothing but a speed hump”, is now training.

He’ll saddle up Royal Diamond and Mutual Regard. Both arrive with solid form and once again Australian jockeys are on board.

None better than Mutual Regard’s jockey Damien Oliver who has already won the nation stopper four times. Steven Arnold rides the stablemate.

Then you have Red Cadeaux. A two time runner-up in this marathon Red Cadeaux is back for a fourth time.

Interestingly enough Precedence is in the same raft. One shouldn’t forget Precedence is trained by “The Legend” One Bart Cummings.

A 12 time winner of the greatest of race the maestro, now training in partnership with grandson James, is looking to win for a 13th time.

“You left out one,” was the reply when this keyboard puncher asked the living legend about his Melbourne Cup contenders four years ago. He was referring to Precedence which will be his 89th runner.

MELBOURNE CUP FIRST FOUR

ADMIRE RATKI 1, Fawkner 2, Red Cadeaux 3, Mutual Regard 4.

BEST BET on Melbourne Cup day

TARGET IN SIGHT (race 9)

VALUE on Melbourne Cup day

Grand Marshall (race 3)

By Craig Young

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