On form, it’s easy to understand why Azkadellia is the pronounced favourite for Saturday’s $750,000 Doomben 10,000 in Brisbane.
The Ciaron Maher-trained four-year-old pressed claims for recognition as the second best mare in the country during the Sydney autumn, finishing third behind the No 1-ranked girl – Winx – in the Doncaster Mile before dominantly winning a maiden Group 1 in the Queen Of The Turf Stakes.
But those who take heed of past results of particular events might baulk at the $2.75 she was following the finalisation of the field on Wednesday morning.
The 1350-metre event has not been a happy hunting ground for mares since switching from a handicap to a weight-for-age contest in 1997.
That inaugural running at WFA is the only one that did not contain a mare or filly in that time, with just two of the 45 who have attempted it since able to get the money.
Hot Danish won as a six-year-old in 2010 and Beaded won as a five-year-old the following year.
Staging (1998), Spinning Hill (2001), Our Egyptian Raine (2004 and 2005) and Sea Siren (2013) all found one better, while Spinning Hill also finished third in 2003.
Of those minor placegetters, all bar Sea Siren – who went around at $17 the year after becoming the lone filly to win the race – is among a group of 16 mares to have started $10 or shorter since 1997.
Hot Danish started $5.50 equal favourite the year of her win, while Staging (fifth at $6 in 1999),Shamekha (sixth, $3.90, 2005) and Srikandi (sixth, $6, last year) are the other mares to have started favourite in a WFA 10,000.
Beaded ($3.20) was just shaded for favouritism by Love Conquers All ($3.10) the year she won.
Azkadellia is in line to be the shortest-priced mare to contest a 10,000 in the past two decades and will be charged with continuing the good run of favourites. Of the 19 runnings at WFA, seven have gone to the favourite but five of those have come in the past eight years.
Azkadellia, who will be ridden by Mark Zahra on Saturday, was not well-served by the barrier draw coming up with the outside gate in the field of 10.
Mr Innocent (2000) was the most recent 10,000 winner to spring from a double-digit gate – 12 in a field of 15 – and only three times since then has the winner jumped from the outside half of the field.
Falvelon started from nine of 14 in 2002, Takeover Target seven of 10 five years later and Beaded jumped from five of seven in what is the smallest field to contest a WFA 10,000.
Azkadellia fans can at least be heartened by recent patterns of the race, which has seen a swing to winners coming from the back half of the field.
The past three winners – Epaulette, Spirit Of Boom and Boban – were in the second half of the field at the 400m, whereas 11 of the previous 16 were in the first four entering the straight.
Azkadellia goes in off a 49-day break since her Queen Of The Turf (1600m) win and there has also been a swing to fresh being best. Sea Siren was second-up, while Beaded (63 days) and Boban (84 days) won off longer breaks than Azkadellia.
The BTC Cup is by far the most prolific producer of Doomben 10,000 winners, with 11 of the 19 WFA winners having rounded out their preparations in that event, including Accomplice, Apache Cat and Sea Siren, who completed the double.
Malaguerra won’t be adding his name to that group, with this year’s BTC Cup winner heading straight to the Stradbroke Handicap, but Dothraki (second), Two Blue (fourth), Fell Swoop (fifth) and Delectation (eight) are the beaten brigade from this year’s 1200m Group 1 lining up on Saturday.
Of that group only last year’s Darley Classic winner Delectation goes into Saturday’s race having tasted Group 1 success, which is a trait shared by eight of the past nine winners (Beaded being the exception) of the 10,000.
Azkadellia is the only other runner in this year’s 10,000 who has previously tasted Group 1 success.
– racing.com
