One of the things that stood out about the Blue Diamond Stakes when looking at historical data before Victoria’s premier juvenile event was the phenomenal record of ‘in-form’ horses.
Prior to this year’s edition, 27 of the previous 36 Blue Diamond winners had been successful at their previous start, with an additional four last-start second placegetters.
It’s a trend that was strengthened thanks to the win of Lyre.
Sydney’s major two-year-old race – the $3.5 million Golden Slipper Stakes, which will be run at Rosehill this Saturday – is a mirror image.
Data goes back to 1983 and reveals that 31 of the past 36 Slipper winners have filled a quinella slot at their final lead-up; 23 last-start winners and eight second placegetters.
No winner in that time has finished further back than fourth at their final lead-up with 2007 winner Forensics, who won it off a fourth placing in the Reisling Stakes, the last who did not fill a quinella slot.
Half of the 16 runners guaranteed a run in this year’s race finished first or second at their most recent outing, but records since 2011 suggest the search can be refined to two races in particular.
Starting from Sepoy – the most recent of the five Blue Diamond winners to also win the Slipper, a double Lyre is shooting for this weekend – all eight Slipper winners have run a fortnight earlier.
Sepoy and Capitalist (2016) both finished second in the Todman Stakes, Pierro (2012) and Vancouver (2015) completed the Todman/Slipper double and Overreach (2013) and Estijaab (2018) won the Reisling, while Mossfun (2014) and She Will Reign (2017) ran second in the Reisling.
Tenley and Exhilarates ran one-two in the Reisling on March 9, while Yes Yes Yes defeated Bellevue Hill in the Todman.
From that quartet, a line can probably be struck through Bellevue Hill, who is third emergency and unlikely to gain a start.
Magic Millions winner Exhilarates can probably be scrubbed as well. Only Dance Hero, Phelan Ready and Capitalist have won the Slipper after claiming the Gold Coast feature and she is at big odds ($20 with BetEasy as of 10:30am Thursday).
Slipper punters have shot straight of late with Estijaab, who started $8.50, becoming the longest-priced winner since Phelan Ready ($26) in 2009.
The average winner’s starting price in that time is $5.62.
That leaves us with Tenley and Yes Yes Yes, who had seemingly contrasting fortunes at the barrier draw – Tenley is likely to jump from gate five and Yes Yes Yes the outside alley – but wide gates have not been insurmountable of late.
Just one of the 10 Slippers between 2004 and 2013 was won by a horse from a double-digit gate, but four of the past five have been won by horses drawn 11 or wider, including Vancouver from the gate Yes Yes Yes will start from this week.
The most successful barrier in Slipper history is one (Microphone will occupy it this year) with nine wins, seven of which have come since 1995, while Lyre has the job of becoming the first winner to start from gate 13 (provided there are no scratchings).
THE VERDICT: Awfully hard to split TENLEY or YES YES YES but, if forced to go for just one, we’ll give the nod to TENLEY given fillies hold an 11-8 record over the boys since 2000.
Below is the record of winners of several key lead-up races on the Golden Slipper, courtesy of Form Focus.
Blue Diamond (won this year by Lyre): 34 starters for five wins – Sepoy (2011), Courtza (1989), Bounding Away (1986), Manikato (1979) and John’s Hope (1972).
Magic Millions (won this year by Exhilarates): 18 starters for three wins – Capitalist (2016), Phelan Ready (2009) and Dance Hero (2004).
Todman Stakes (won this year by Yes Yes Yes): 42 starters for five wins – Vancouver (2015), Pierro (2012), Tierce (1991), Marauding (1987) and Luskin Star (1977).
Reisling Stakes (won this year by Tenley): 42 starters for six wins – Overreach (2013), Polar Success (2003), Belle Du Jour (2000), Merlene (1996), Burst (1992) and Hartshill (1974).
Pago Pago Stakes (won this year by Cosmic Force): 30 starters for three wins – Stratum (2005), Rory’s Jester (1985) and Inspired (1984).
Magic Night Stakes (won this year by Kiamichi): 35 starters for five wins – Bint Marscay (1993), Bounding Away (1986), Dark Eclipse (1980), Century Miss (1979) and Toy Show (1975).
Skyline Stakes (won this year by Microphone): 36 starters for five wins – Dance Hero (2004), Prowl-1998, Guineas (1997), Star Watch (1988) and Sir Dapper (1983).
Sweet Embrace Stakes (won this year by Anaheed): 31 starters for three wins – Crystal Lily (2010), Ha Ha (2001) and Dark Eclipse (1980).
– racing.com
