Is The Melbourne Cup All But Over?

So with just eight-days before the race that stops a nation there are 32 horses left vying for a spot in the $6.2million Emirates Melbourne Cup field of 24.

But which one of them, if any, can beat Hartnell?

Sometimes punters are inclined to ignore the obvious, whether that’s because they avoid backing favourites or have some dream of landing a life-changing long shot winner – with respect to 2015 when a 100/1 shot beat all including a so-called unbeatable Japanese superstar Fame Game, those long shots don’t land too often.

Before you start scouting wide for a winner, contemplate Hartnell’s profile.

Before his gallant, albeit eight-length defeat at the hands of Bowman and Winx in Saturday’s Cox Plate, this was a brutal beast racing in career best form. Three wins leading into the Cox Plate returned a combined margin of 16.85 lengths, including a three-length carve up of subsequent Caulfield Cup winner Jameka when giving the mare a 3kg head start.

Hartnell has been handicapped for the Cup as if he was treading water. He was assigned 55.5kg last year and has 55kg this year, but since the weights were released in early September the horse has improved his handicap rating by 13 points; that’s a 12 point increase on his 15th in the 2015 Melbourne Cup.

On that handicap he drops 4kg on recent WFA runs into the Cup this year.

Hartnell has had two 3200m runs for a win as a three-year-old at Royal Ascot and two forgivable defeats. He was far too keen in running when fourth in the 2015 Sydney Cup, then settled near last in a painfully slow run 2015 Melbourne Cup when 15th.

Hartnell handles all ground conditions and, as we saw in the Turnbull, is a relentless galloper on a big track. He hasn’t had to travel, acclimatise, or find a new rider; this is a horse very much in his sweet spot.

So, what can be said of the rivals considered most likely to beat him?

Jameka – A class act but meets Hartnell 1.5kg worse for a Turnbull spanking and is an unknown at 3200m.

Bondi Beach – 16th in this race last year as a three-year-old but workmanlike so far in 2016 and meets Hartnell on level weights.

Almandin – Has been beating up on weaker rivals, faces his moment of truth and is unknown beyond 2500m.

Big Orange – Ran a huge race in 2015 Cup but had it all his own way in front, won’t get it that easy this year.

Heartbreak City – Bolted away with the Ebor, won two hurdle races before that.

Almoonqith – Career best at Caulfield, but Australian highlights have come at Listed and G3 level.

Exospheric – Huge run at Caulfield but another that carries risk at his first attempt beyond 2400m.

The Melbourne Cup is very rarely a cut and dried result, Prince Of Penzance and Michelle Payne reminded us of that in 2015, but at this point, a week from Cup day, it is impossible to ignore the bold running brute in royal blue.

Like it or not, Hartnell is the horse to beat at Flemington.

– g1x.com.au

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