Preferment will be out to break a drought of almost three decades when he attempts to defend his Turnbull Stakes crown at Flemington on Sunday.
But to call it a hoodoo might be a little misleading.
Since 1988, when Vo Rogue joined Comic Court (1949/50) as the back-to-back winners of the 2000-metre set-weights-and-penalties event, it’s been rare for the previous year’s winner to contest the Turnbull Stakes.
Five have tried and December Draw, who finished third in 2012, is the only one to place. The Phantom Chance finished fifth in 1994, Doriemus ran sixth in 1997, Studebaker was 10th in 2004 and Happy Trails finished 13th in 2014.
Perhaps of greater concern to the Preferment camp should be the 59kg the five-year-old will be asked to carry in the $500,000 Group 1.
- While six of the 11 winners between 1988 and 1998 won with 59kg, only two have done so since; Northerly (2002) and Zipping (2010);
- Zipping is one of 34 horses to have carried more than 57.5kg in a Turnbull since 2002 and only six others have placed;
- 56.5kg-57.5kg has been the most successful weight range in that time with six wins; and
- The lightest-weight carried to victory in that time was 53kg, by Littorio in 2010.
Those with 57.5kg this year: Happy Trails, Hartnell, The United States, Our Ivanhowe.
FAVOURITES
- Form Focus tells us 11 favourites have won in the past 30 years, but only two since 2006; December Draw and Green Moon ($4, 2012). Four winners in that time have started $14 or longer, including Efficient and Happy Trails at $26;
- Hartnell opened the $2.20 favourite with CrownBet, marginally longer than the $2.15 that December Draw won at in 2011;
- December Draw is the shortest-priced favourite to score since Sky Heights ($1.90, 1999) joined Naturalism ($1.80, 1992) as odds-on favourites to score in the past 30 years; and
- The most recent odds-on favourite was Weekend Hussler, who fished eighth at $1.90 in 2008.
LEAD-UP FORM
- For a long time the Underwood Stakes was the premier form reference – nine of the 14 winners from 1996-2009 came straight out of that 1800m Group 1 at Caulfield – but the recent change to the spring calendar has altered that; and
- Between 1987 and 2013, Fairway was the only Turnbull winner to come off a final lead-up run in Sydney – a sixth placing in the George Main Stakes – but the past two winners have won off Sydney runs. Lucia Valentina also ran sixth in the George Main, while Preferment came off a Hill Stakes win.
Those who had their previous start in Sydney: Preferment and Hartnell (both ran in Hill Stakes)
Underwood Stakes runners this year: Tarzino.
LOOKING FORWARD
- The Caulfield Cup is the spring major the Turnbull Stakes has had the greatest impact on in the past 30 years. Let’s Elope, Sky Heights, Northerly and Elvstroem all won both races, while Paris Lane, Doriemus, Diatribe, Mummify, Viewed, Descarado, Southern Speed and Fawkner all contested the Turnbull Stakes en route Caulfield Cup success;
- Four horses have also completed the Turnbull/Cox Plate double in the past 30 years – Better Loosen Up, The Phantom Chance, Northerly and Makybe Diva – while Sunline, El Segundo andMaldivian are other Cox Plate winners to have run in the Turnbull; and
- Makybe Diva ran in the Turnbull in each of her Melbourne Cup-winning years, three of nine years that the Cup winner has come through the Flemington lead-up. Let’s Elope and Green Moon also completed the double.
