This magnificent race is now at Group One level and it is about time. Buffering won the race last year when it was a Group Two and the two years before that, the race was won by Black Caviar. Apache Cat won the race before the Caviar domination started and other winners include Miss Andretti, Falvelon, Schillaci and Manikato.
We say this almost every week in regards to the Group One races this spring, but this race is especially hard. There are ten horses in the race and six of them are at $9 or less. There are four Group One winners and of course Buffering and Snitzerland are yet to win a Group One, but they are at the top of the market.
Buffering is undeniably due to win a Group One race; he gets done by weight, track conditions and bad luck every winter in his native Queensland, but he is really dynamic at Moonee Valley and he will be hard to beat in this race. Epaulette has pushed Black Caviar over the 6 furlongs and has won two Group Ones. He can produce a devastating sprint and will be storming home. Bel Sprinter produced the best non-Black Caviar sprint in recent memory when he ran down Snitzerland in the Galaxy this spring. While Snitzerland herself is a Moonee Valley winner and always runs really well fresh. After a long time off the scene, Samaready was unbelievable first up and she will no doubt be right there at the end. That leaves Moment of Change (of the horses under single figures); this boy needed to do a little more first up to be one of the top two chances in this race. But he is a Newmarket runner up with a big weight and a really nice sprinter at his best.
Wow… So where do we go for our bets? Because it is such a deep race, the favourite is probably going to jump at $4.50 so it is possible to back more than one horse. Snitzerland and Buffering will be out in front and if they don’t try and run each other into the ground then they will be hard to get past. Epaulette is maybe better suited at a bigger track but he rarely puts in a bad run and will no doubt be there at some stage. Samaready has that ‘second up syndrome’ factor hanging over her head; however she is a gun and can’t be completely discounted. And Bel Sprinter. Well he can be the best and worst horse in Australia in the course of one 1200m race. He will be buried back on the fence and if he gets a crack at them, he will almost be impossible to hold out especially if Snitzerland and Buffering cut each other up.
Verdict
Having said all the above, the verdict is a Buffering and Bel Sprinter deadheat. Buffering will be out in front and Bel Sprinter will be coming home. We can back them both and have one at each end of the field for the trip. It is just a little ‘gutless’ to tip two horses but who can split them honestly? The good news is Epaulette and Snitzerland are going to be highly fancied and that in turn gives us good odds about Buffering and Bel Sprinter.
To win… No.1. Buffering and No.3. Bel Sprinter. They will be close to $5 each so back them both!
Hardest to beat… No.9. Snitzerland. The mare will be right up there with Buffering and if the big Queensland gelding is a little off, the mare can run away with it.
Rough chance… No.10. Samaready. This mare is too short at $7.50. She will drift on race night and will represent good value if she gets to $10. She has a few question marks around her but also a certain ‘wildcard’ factor.
This is an exceptionally hard race, but with impossibility comes value.
By Zeb Armstrong
