This is the best race of the year so far by far. It is fantastic to see the brilliant Atlantic Jewel backing up and she will be well and truly tested at 1800m under WFA conditions. If she does happen to be beaten don’t be too concerned because Kavanagh has maintained all preparation that she will be peaking on Cox Plate day.
The race is full of Group One winners and the two horses that have not won a Group One, Sea Moon and Puissance de Lune might end up being the two best male horses in the race.
We have seen exactly what Green Moon and Manighar and can do; there are no surprises left in their form. Their best is great and good enough to run really well in this race but it is probably not good enough to beat Atlantic Jewel especially at WFA. Foreteller received a great run and ride last start to win the Makybe Diva and beat Puissance de Lune. The Waller trained gelding always seems to pop up in a big race here and there but he rarely strings wins together. Mr Moet was a really good run in the Diva and he is the one who looks as if he has the most improvement in him out of the Diva Stakes. Happy Trails is best over a mile and due to missing last start he is now jumping sharply in trip. Ethiopia, Waldpark and My Quest for Peace look as if they will be better suited in handicaps races and Silent Achiever as well as Dear Demi need just a small drop in class from this race as to be genuine winning chances.
That leaves Puissance de Lune, Atlantic Jewel, Sea Moon and It’s A Dundeel. With Mr Moet, these appear to be the best placed horses in the race. Atlantic Jewel is a champion; she is flying and last Saturday was nothing more than a track gallop. In her first up run this prep in the Memsie, she won so very easily and in the process beat the likes of Fiorente and It’s A Dundeel. She was breathtaking that day at Caulfield and she, according to her connections is better now than she was on that day. That is a scary proposition considering she is unbeaten. The sky is the limit for Atlantic Jewel.
Puissance de Lune gives his best in everything he does. He has not yet raced (this season) at his best distances, yet he is still ultra-competitive in these races between 1400m and 2000m. We must remember that last spring he won his last two staying races by a combined 13 lengths and when he gets to the Melbourne Cup he will be extremely hard to beat. He is out to $8 now with the quality that is in this race and he looks like an each way special simply based on natural ability and his will to win. The big grey entire might find it just a little beyond him to beat Atlantic Jewel, but he will give her a bit of a fright at some stage during the run.
Sea Moon was terrible after little incident in the barriers at his Aussie debut, but he has since trialled and his best is breathtaking especially at the 2000m and beyond. 1800m is short of his best, but expect a much improved run on Saturday. That leaves It’s A Dundeel. His run was as good as Fiorente’s in the Memsie and we have seen what Gai’s boy has done since. Last preparation in Sydney when this midget kiwi horse won the three-year-old triple crown, he ran 4th first up behind Pierro, Rebel Dane and Proisir. The next start he won the Randwick Guineas over the mile and from there he never looked back. He again has run 4th first up this time in and he is absolutely primed for a big run here.
Verdict:
Atlantic Jewel to win, Puissance de Lune an each way special and maybe a saver on It’s A Dundeel and even $1 each way on Mr Moet. But really, at their best over 1800m at WFA what horses can give Atlantic Jewel a fright? Maybe Sea Moon but he has question marks around him. It’s A Dundeel – maybe, his best is unbelievable but he is yet to win in Melbourne. He will soon, and it might be this week, but still it all comes back to Atlantic Jewel. Her best at WFA over 1800m is better than any other horse in the race. Simple as that. Well hopefully as simple as that.
Win – No.12. Atlantic Jewel $1.50
Hardest to beat – No.11. It’s A Dundeel $11
Each way special – No.8. Puissance de Lune $7.50
Maybe??? – No.7. Sea Moon $13 and No.3. Mr Moet $31
It will be a great race.
By Zeb Armstrong
