A why and why not about each runner in the 2014 Oaks.
1. Zanbagh
Yes – Has run second in the VRC Oaks so she clearly will enjoy the distance. She is losing the bar plates which is always a plus and she has been set for this race for a long time and her trainer knows exactly what it takes to peak a horse for a grand final. She has a lot of talent and looks close to an each way special.
No – She had her chance to beat many of these horses two weeks ago and she was soundly thrashed. However the positives outweigh the negatives and 2400m at Randwick is a different universe to the 2000m at Rosehill.
2. Lucia Valentina
Yes – She was absolutely dominant in the Storm Queen; she seems to enjoy the wet and her turn of foot was astonishing. She was running nicely in New Zealand before coming over and she is bred to get the 2400m. The one to beat for sure.
No – Occasionally when these fillies exploded onto the scene after one run, they find it hard to back up in the Oaks. This race tends to have some surprising result at times, and favourites do not have the best record in the race. Her best is good enough to win, but it is hard for young horses to run a career best, then run another best at their next start.
3. Rising Romance
Yes – She has not missed a beat in her career and she always, without exception runs well. She has performed well over 2400m in the past whereas some of the others in this field are a little suspect at the mile and a half. Looks set to again to run well.
No – Kiwi fillies don’t have a very good record in this race and it is hard to rise to the 2400m twice in one preparation as a filly. She was beaten six lengths by the favourite in the Storm Queen, but Rising Romance does have a victory recorded over Lucia Valentina back in NZ.
4. Miss Mossman
Yes – New Zealand Oaks winner over this trip. Having a strong win at 2400m on the resume is important as it shows she can handle the trip.
No – Was terrible in the Storm Queen and she simply looks as if she hates wet tracks. Prepared to risk.
5. Suavito
Yes – Has been crying out for the 2400m and has a touch of class also. She appears as if she might be a better older horse, but she is be all means mature enough to get going here over 2400m.
No – Another who was flogged in the Storm Queen, but before that she had never missed a place. One of the roughies.
6. Forever Loved
Yes – We should never write off a champion, and Gai Waterhouse is not just a champion, but an immortal champion. It is no secret that the humble author of this tip sheet works for Gai in some part and I can tell you, she has been gearing everything towards this meeting. This filly ran third in the Storm Queen and ran really well. She will run again, and has been aimed at this race for a long time.
No – She simply might not be good enough. She can stay, and that is half the problem, but the others at the top of the market might be able to stay a little longer and do it a little quicker. She is not hopeless.
7. Miss Selby
Yes – Was runner up in the New Zealand Oaks in an indication that she can ran ok over the 2400m. Seven starts for a two wins and five placings is a great record and with Boss aboard she will most likely be thereabouts.
No – Although she ran second in the NZ Oaks, she was soundly beaten by Miss Mossman. She has never been on a wet track and as abovementioned, the visiting kiwis do not have a good record in this race. Maybe just lacking the class required to win a million dollar race. Prepared to leave out.
8. Casino Dancer
Yes – Apart from running second to the smart miler Gypsy Diamond last start, this filly not really done anything of note this preparation. She does not mind a heavy track and she is in form but that is about all.
No – A maiden and surely not twice in one season in a Classic race (Shamus Award). 100-1 might be slightly overs but there are plenty in front of her.
9. Interspersed
Yes – There are a few positives about this girl in regards to this race. She did finish in front of Tupac Amaru recently and he ran a bold second in the Derby last week. She also won the Canberra Guineas and beat a good Waterhouse horse named Liberty’s Choice in what was a super win. A few big names around town are talking about this filly in this race, so just keep your eyes and ears open…
No – Another who was no match for the Lucia Valentina back in the Storm Queen and she is otherwise untested on heavy tracks. Would prefer her in the Queen of the Turf, and she looks a potential Myer Classic or even a Cox Plate horse in the spring, but perhaps the 2400m might be here a bit soon this preparation. Prepared to risk.
10. Role Model
Yes – Was brilliant first up in Australia behind Zanbagh in the Keith Nolan then despite being flat on the heavy track last start, she did plug away fairly. The quick backup is also a positive and she was purchased out of New Zealand for this race precisely. She is working well on the track and 60-1 is overs.
No – In the inferior lead up race the Adrian Knox she was beaten eight lengths by Arabian Gold. Arabian Gold might be 10-1 or even 15-1 in this race. The possibility of a heavy track is also a mark against. Not hopeless and maybe worth $1 each way.
11. Amanpour
Yes – This filly can lead and travel at a good clip. She has won two races in the not too distance past by huge margins. She also has the best front running jockey in the world aboard and she is probably the best of the Waterhouse three in this race.
No – Did not kick on the wet track last week and if it is heavy again on Saturday, she might be right up against it. She will give a sight and is one of the best longshots.
12. Missvonn
Yes – Ran on really nicely when fancied last week in the Adrian Knox. She seemed to thrive on the wet track and she is also one of the rare fillies in this field to have run on well in both the Storm Queen and the Adrian Knox. She is definitely fit and heads into this race in pretty reasonable form.
No – Another who simply just might not be good enough to match it with the top three or four. She is improving, but her best at this stage looks just a little weak to win this race. A rough chance.
13. Cast in Stone
Yes – This filly has been backed and it seems it is mainly due to the Cummings’ factor and the fact she is having a Melbourne Cup like preparation. She has just been ticking along nicely and with the polish of the master, she looks set to thrive over the 2400m.
No – Eight starts for just one win and one third. She was smashed over the mile last week and although this trip looks as if it will suit, she will have wanted to improve a heap very quickly. Not without an each way chance.
14. Cuban Star
Yes – Has placed on a heavy track in the past and has a pretty consistent record. That is about all.
No – Just $16,000 in prize money to date and just one win that was at Norwa. She did win by six that day, but surely she is outclassed in this race .Beaten at Gosford on a heavy track last start. 300-1 and if she wins she might just be the longest winner of a three-year-old Classic in Australian racing history. Better have $1 a win just in case!
15. Blue Eyes
Yes – Pat Carey trainer.
No – Not good enough at this stage.
Verdict:
Winner – 1. Zanbagh. She was narrowly beaten in the VRC Oaks and she has the look of a filly that has been set for one race and this is it. She was $6 but is now under $5 and will start the clear second favourite.
Hardest to beat – 2. Lucia Valentina. We have to stand up and take notice of what this filly did at her last start in the Storm Queen. She hit the line in a way that indicates she will thrive over the 2400m. She is the one to beat and if she has come on again she can street this field.
Best longshot – 11. Amanpour. She will be out in front and if the track dries out she will be in front for a long way. She can bound along really nicely and she will be hard to run down at huge odds.
By Zeb Armstrong
