The first Group One of the Brisbane Winter Carnival (it is still autumn!) is usually a hotly contested affair with plenty of wonderful horses having won the race. Queensland champions Chief De Beers (1996) and Falvelon (2000, 2003) have flown the flag for the locals as has Strawberry Road (1983). Victoria champions Apache Cat (2008) and Black Caviar (2011) both won the race and in doing so beat very hot fields.
This year the race is very even with six of the eight runners currently sitting in single figures on the fixed odds boards. But for mine the race is down to one… Buffering. This grand old galloper had to wait a long time for Black Caviar and Hay List to retire, but then he managed to still get rolled a few times in Group One races. Then he won three Group One races in a row and was clearly the best sprinter in the land. But true to history Lankan Rupee came along and knocked him back to second. However Lankan Rupee is in the paddock and Buffering just has to get past the Boom horses, Snitzerland and a few other up-and-comers to snare his 4th Group One win. But he is easily good enough and at Doomben he is three wins and four places from eight starts.
The two Boom horses are tough, hard and will always do their best. Both are in tremendous form and both will be flying home. Snitzerland will be up the front with Buffering. She is five from 13 at 1200m and Doomben will definitely suit. Tiger Tees and Hot Snitzel are both progressive types; both seem to enjoy wet ground more than the rock hard stuff, but with very little rain predicted they might just be found wanting. That leaves Famous Shamus who looks outclassed and Peron who has a lot of potential but she might find it hard to get past Buffering in this race.
Verdict:
Winner – No.1. Buffering. Last year in this race he was beaten by a very heavy track; the year before that he was scratched when favourite and the year before that he ran a good third behind Black Caviar and Hay List. 1200m is his favourite journey, he loves Doomben and he generally put the sword to any horse that takes him on at the start of the race. He has had a nice little freshen up since his heavy track third behind Lankan Rupee and he will be extremely hard to get past.
Hardest to beat – No.7. Snitzerland. (late scratching)
According to my ratings, this is how the field will finish:
8th. Famous Shamus
7th. Hot Snitzel
6th. Tiger Tees
5th. Temple of Boom
4th. Spirit of Boom
3rd. Peron
2nd. Snitzerland (late scratching)
1st. Buffering
By Zeb Armstrong
