Last year in this race Pierro beat More Joyous with Solzhenitsyn a couple of lengths away in third. The best horse beat the second best horse with the third best horse running third. It was clear cut last year, but that is certainly not the case this year.
We have three main groups; the older males, the mares and the three-year-olds. The older horses are up against it here under the WFA scale. Rain Affair might be able to do something if the track is wet and he can somehow find his best again. Speediness is a great horse but his is a bit of a non-winner, which might be a bit cruel because he has never been out of the best company. Toydini and Sacred Falls both have some claims but will be better later in the autumn heading toward the Doncaster, while My Kingdom of Fife is $151 but he has won at that price before on Australian shores. The mares are three multiple Group One winners Appearance, Streama and Red Tracer. You either love Appearance or hate her. You leave her out and she wins by 3 and you back her and she tails off last. She is flying this time in but this is a step up again from the races she has been winning. Streama’s best is good enough to win as it has been in almost every race she has ever contested. She will be better a little later but she will improve second up for sure. Red Tracer is bombproof; she is a gun on top of the ground and unbeatable on a wet track. She was dynamic first up and the 1300m is almost her pet distance. Then there are the two three-year-olds. Zoustar smashed Not Listenin’tome in the spring, but the Hawkes gelding looks to have improved whereas there is a certain mystery surrounding Zoustar. However Zoustar is worth millions and there is no way Waller would have him resuming if he was not ready to thrive over the 1300m.
Verdict:
So where to look? Would Waller have Red Tracer in the race if there was any chance of her beating the boom colt Zoustar? You can almost add an extra zero to the sale price of Zoustar for each Group One he wins this time in. Would Waller compromise that with his favourite mare Red Tracer? Let’s hope so because the tip is:
Winner – 8. Red Tracer $5. You just know what you are going to get with this girl. Zoustar was not great first up last time and if there is any chink in his amour, this mare will pounce and just do what she does at every start she has. She is probably still the best open class mare in the land and if the rain comes down like it usually does in Sydney during the Autumn Carnival, then the $5 might not last too long. She is at each ways odds and it is hard to see her missing a place should she run her best, which she usually does.
Hardest to beat – 9. Zoustar $2.70. If this boy has improved just slightly from the spring, then he is probably the best sprinter in the country. He can fly off a fast or slow pace and he can even sit on the pace should he be required to do so as to get the best chance in the run. 1300m is perfect and it will be no surprise if he blows this field away and then wins the T.J. Smith. He is a star and he will be very hard to beat. But It’s A Dundeel, Boban and Guelph were all less than impressing when resuming for the Autumn, so just tread carefully.
Best longshot – A tie between 3. Speediness $13 and 5. Rain Affair $21. Rain Affair ran 4th in a super edition of this race last year and if he can recapture that form he is a good place chance. If the rain comes he will be much better suited. Speediness never runs a bad race and although he will be much better suited in the Doncaster, he will be thereabouts in this race on Saturday.
By Zeb Armstrong
