Unfortunately you can’t back them all. When punting we have to take a stand against some runners, despite the fact that almost every horse (in this race particularly) appears to have a chance. After studying the history of this race and working out a strategy, I have come up with the following theory.
Horses that will be risked are either coming back in distance, have failed at the 2000m before, are in bad form or look outclassed. That eliminates the BMW horses It’s A Dundeel and Silent Achiever, Sacred Falls who has failed at 2000m in the past, Dear Demi who is not in good form and My Kingdom of Fife, Toydini and Le Rio who are outclassed in the richest WFA race ever run in Australia. Risking It’s A Dundeel and Silent Achiever in particular might leave us with egg on the old face, but as abovementioned, you can’t back them all!
So in the mix is Boban who is coming up in distance and is untried at 2000m, Green Moon who is staying at 2000m, Carlton House who is staying at 2000m, Hawkspur who is coming up to the 2000m and Royal Descent who is coming up to 2000m. Five chances according to this theory and the two horses that will most likely be the two favourites by race time have been left out. Here is a reason why and why not for the remaining five in calculations.
1. Boban
Yes – Was the story of the spring and has beaten It’s A Dundeel in a Group One race. He has always been set for this race, and his turn of foot is breathtaking.
No – Never been to the 2000m and he hates the wet. Boban is the weakest of the five chances, but he is probably the best value.
4. Green Moon
Yes – Ran Fiorente to half a length over 2000m at his last start and he is definitely fit and happy. Lloyd Williams rates Sydney racing somewhere behind Bendigo and Ballarat so he would not send his Cup winner up here if he was not ready to win. He has had four wins and two seconds from nine starts at the 2000m.
No – Hates the wet and he rarely factors at WFA. Yes he is coming off a WFA runner up, but that was at his favourite track in his home State on a dry track.
5. Carlton House
Yes – Almost beat Silent Achiever at 2000m at his last start and he has certainly come on since then. At 2000m in 2012 at Royal Ascot, he was beaten narrowly by So You Think in a Group One. Back in third was Reliable Man who won this race last year and beat the then $1.24 favourite It’s A Dundeel. At his best, Carlton House might be the best horse in the race and it would be a fairy tale if he won with Tommy Berry, Lizzy Windsor and Gai.
No – Never won on the wet and the front runners have not been doing much at Randwick so far in The Championships. If he is not at his top, a few others will go past him late in the race.
6. Hawkspur
Yes – Does not mind the wet and seems perfectly suited at the 2000m. He stormed home in the Doncaster in a run that indicated he is primed for this race.
No – He is not as good as some of the others that are shorter in the market. He will need everything to go right to win, but it just might.
7. Royal Descent
Yes – Looked the winner in the Doncaster and that was over an unsuitable trip. She won the Oaks on a wet track last year at this track by 10 lengths and she is unbeaten over 2000m at Randwick also. The one to beat as she will be storming home and the wetter the better.
No – She is a bit of a non-winner if that is fair! She is always thereabouts but she has not won in a year.
Verdict:
Winner – No.7. Royal Descent. She will be flying home and she loves the wet. The Doncaster was the perfect pipe opener and mares that are backing up and are in good form usually run well.
Hardest to beat – No.5. Carlton House. He will be leading and if the fence is on and the track dries out, he is the one to beat. He has been aimed at this race that is named after his owner for a long time and there is just something about him that indicates he is almost back to his best.
Best longshot – No.1. Boban just from 4. Green Moon. Boban is too good to leave out. He was in the wrong part of the track in the George Ryder and he never got a crack at them. He is mixing his form a bit of late, but his best is good enough to run really well.
By Zeb Armstrong
