The Randwick Guineas has been a Group One race since 2006 and has been won by the likes of Weekend Hussler, Shoot Out and last year It’s A Dundeel. This year there is a full field of 15 entered with each way odds about the entire field. There is no clear stand out, perhaps five horses just making up the numbers, two previous Group One winners and just two last start winners.
Dissident is a last start winner and during his ten start career he has never been too far away and has either won or placed in seven of his ten starts. El Roca came to Australia with a big boom on him and he has not disappointed. He won first up this time in, then after a scratching and some controversy was not beaten too far by Terravista in what was a great race. Criterion has either run 2nd or 4th in his last five starts. He is a little bit of a non-winner and can almost be left out of the winning chances in this race. Another Kiwi Atlante is the second favourite in the race after three wins in New Zealand and a courageous second to Dissident at his Aussie debut. Eurozone has done nothing wrong this time in, and was only swamped late in the Australian Guineas and before that he almost beat Moment of Change over 1400m. Savvy Nature was good first up, and he is always thereabouts, while Bull Point seems well and truly over the odds considering what he has shown in his career to date. Romantic Touch is the only Australian Group One winner in the field and that win was recorded over Zoustar in the 1600m J.J. Atkins in Brisbane. This race is of course over 1600m and there is no real reason why Romantic Touch should be at $20. In his only other race over close to a mile (1550m), Romantic Touch beat Savvy Nature by almost eight lengths. The third of the Waterhouse runners is Woodbine. This son of a gun (out of Miss Finland) has been crying out for the mile since he won his first two this time in over unsuitable distances. For mine, that is where the chances end.
Verdict:
Winner – 8. Romantic Touch $21. The three Waterhouse runners are the top three selections as all three have been well and truly aimed at this race and all seem well over their true odds. Romantic Touch has only has the one start at the mile and he not only beat Zoustar but also the spring sensation Paximadia. Gai has been trying to get him back to the mile for a long time and last start, he did lead and drop out, but he will be fitter for the run. $21 is a steal and expect a great run at the well-and-truly each way odds.
Hardest to beat – 7. Bull Point $9. The other hardest to beat is no doubt El Roca, but at more than double the odds, Bull Point gets the nod. This colt beat a good field first up, then was not too far behind Moment of Change in the Futurity. He gets to the mile for the first time, and as we saw in the Golden Rose, he certainly can cut out a huge sectional when required. $9 is a huge price for what might be the best horse in the race.
Best longshot – 9. Woodbine $11. A Waterhouse trifecta? It will be hard but these three horses are absolutely flying. Woodbine won his first two this time in over unsuitable trips; he won these races on natural class but he has always looked a horse that will like the mile and even beyond. He ran on really well on the wet track in the Hobartville and with even luck he should be storming home and will be hard to hold out.
By Zeb Armstrong
