WHEN Choisir confiscated the Royal Ascot silverware in 2003 he started a decade of British humiliation in the sprint division. The Aussies were about to take over.
The national rivalry was more battery than battle right through to last year, when Black Caviar and Ortensia each bagged a British Group 1, but this year the well has run dry.
The Brits have been on safe ground at home in 2013, so is it really possible for a Brit to go the other way round and beat the Aussies in the land of speed?
After what Lethal Force did against a cosmopolitan field in the July Cup the answer has to be yes.
There isn’t an Australian horse in training that would have beaten him on Saturday, so providing he handles the journey it is definitely possible.
There is a huge cash incentive waiting for Lethal Force at Flemington in November. The Patinack Farm Classic is a valuable race and Clive Cox’s colt is also eligible for a bonus after winning the July Cup.
Adding the bonus to the win prize-money creates a prize pot for that one race that dwarfs the amount he has earned across all 15 races in his career – which includes winning two Group 1s and a Group 2.
He has already received the invitation and the incentive is clear, but this year the circumstances may also have fallen in his favour, giving him a very real chance of doing something which only last year would have seemed highly improbable.
In the time of Black Caviar it would have been absurd to think a Brit could have gone to Australia and beaten the best around, but now the triple world sprint champion has retired there is room at the top.
It is not just the champ who has left the scene either. Hay List has fallen from his position as the next best and with Group 1 winners like Sea Siren and Mental being snapped up to race in Europe the hole at the top of Australian sprinting looks ripe for a raid.
Once again some Aussies took the well worn path to Royal Ascot this year, including triple top-level winner Sea Siren and Shamexpress, who was beaten a short-head in the Newmarket Handicap in March. But they didn’t hit the frame.
After finishing ninth in the King’s Stand Stakes and seventh behind Lethal Force on the weekend, Shamexpress’s trainer Danny O’Brien, who was pretty confident before Royal Ascot, admitted his charge “probably needs to find another three or four lengths to win a Group 1 over here.”
Sea Siren had not been at her best before she arrived and Shamexpress arrived with a peak RPR of just 111, so they shouldn’t have been expected to win at Royal Ascot, but their performances show there is very little between the two pools of horses at present.
The highest rated sprinters in training in Australia this year are Bel Sprinter and Your Song, who have peak RPRs of 121. With Lethal Force posting an RPR of 124 on Saturday, Cox must fancy his chances.
The only fly in the ointment could be Atlantic Jewel. She is unbeaten in seven starts and looked a real star as a three-year-old but she’s been on the sidelines since April 2012 with a tendon injury. If she returns at full strength (RPR 124) she could beat Lethal Force.
With two top level wins over international fields at home Lethal Force has already shown he has the class to beat everything in Australia with the possible exception of Atlantic Jewel.
The other positive for the Brit is the Patinack itself. Lethal Force would be perfectly suited to running a straight Aussie 6f, as he’s a fast starter, strong traveller and has the stamina to see off all comers.
The question really is whether connections want to gear the rest of their season around the Patinack; whether the risk of taking a colt around the world are offset by the chance to do something that may not be achieved again for a long time.
Source : racingpost.com
