Two-year-olds Boomwaa and Bugatty have commanded most of the attention in the lead-up to this year’s Black Caviar Lightning, but history says it’s the next age group up that are more likely to provide the winner of the $500,000 event.
Three-year-olds are the most successful age group in the history of Australia’s only 1000-metre Group 1 event, which was first run in 1955.
Twenty-two of the 59 winners – a tick over 37 percent – have been three; 14 colts or geldings and eight fillies.
And that is despite not having won any since Fastnet Rock completed a run of 12 wins in 20 years for the age group in 2005.
There have been 19 three-year-olds have a crack at the Lightning since Fastnet Rock’s win, but 14 of those came in two years. Eight of the 11 runners in the 2006 edition won by Takeover Target were three, while there were six three-year-olds finished behind Nicconi in 2010.
Three-year-olds were not represented last year or 2007 and there was only one runner in 2008 (Bel Mer, eighth), 2009 (Wilander, fourth), and 2012 (Foxwedge, fourth). There were two runners in 2011 with Warm Love finishing third and Crystal Lily fifth behind Black Caviar.
As for two-year-olds, only three have won the Lightning, Desirable the most recent in 1976. Just three have tried in the past 30 years with Clever Zoe, who ran second to Schillaci in 1993, the only one to place.
All up, 27 two-year-olds have contested the Lightning and only five have filled a top-three position.
Of the three-year-olds that have won, the past nine were all first-up from a spell. But that’s the theme for winners of all age groups with only four of the past 23 winners having won it with the benefit of a run under their belt in that campaign.
Horses in the market, but not necessarily favourite, have been to the fore in that time as well.
All but three winners in the past 23 years have started at longer than $8, nine of which were favourite, including Black Caviar three times.
Bernabeu, Thermal Current and Brilliant Bisc are the three-year-olds engaged this year with Bernabeu the only one of the trio resuming that will be at a single-figure quote.
Battling out favouritism this year are four-year-old mares Samaready and Snitzerland and if either salutes they will become the only fifth mare to win in the past 30 years. Black Caviar won it three times with Special (1988), Spinning Hill (2002) and Miss Andretti (2007) the other mature females to score.
One of the day’s support features, the $150,000 Group 3 C.S. Hayes Stakes (1400m) wasn’t Robbie Laing’s preferred course of action with Polanski, but missing last week’s Autumn Stakes presents him with the opportunity to do something only Raveneaux has achieved.
He is the only horse to the C.S Hayes – first run as The Debonair in 1986 – at his first start since winning the Victoria Derby.
Mahogany is the other Victoria Derby winner whose name adorns the C.S. Hayes Stakes honour roll.
Raveneaux one of only six first-up winners of the race and it hasn’t been done over 1400m at Flemington – Wordsmith won the Hayes Stakes first-up when it was over 1200m at Moonee Valley in 2007 – since Crawl in 2000.
The past three winners have been second-up after resuming in the Manfred Stakes, a formline The Quarterback, Prince Harada, Monkstone and Worth A Ransom bring into this year’s race.
The other $150,000 Group 3 three-year-old feature, The Mittys Vanity, has been the domain of fillies either first up or coming off a top-two finish of late.
Ten of the past 21 winners of The Vanity have been first-up with all but one of the remaining 11 having finished first or second at their previous outing.
Group 1 placegetters Solicit and Sensibility are those first-up in this year’s The Vanity with Scratchy Bottom and Girl In Flight those coming off a top-two finish.
– Racing Victoria
