Luckygray and Temple Of Boom have a definite class edge on the field in this race. Luckygray has won five races at 1200m and three from four first up. The striking Perth grey has also won two Group Ones. Temple Of Boom is a Flemington straight expert. He has had six runs down the straight and has won two and placed in another. Temple Of Boom is also a Group One winner but his form in his home state over the winter carnival was terrible. Like Luckgray he is good first up having won 4 from 9.
These two Group One performers have a big class edge on the field and they are both $5 so it is possible to back them both. Riziz is the race favourite at $3.30 but this seems very short despite the fact he has won his last two and is unbeaten up the straight. Riziz has beaten slow horse Livigno up the straight in one of his wins and Zamorar in the other. We here at the Home of Racing are getting very close to sacking Zamorar! Riziz is well credentialed but we have to way up winning form against average opposition verses Group One class.
And Zamorar. He will win one day but $6.50 this week against these horses when he could not get near weaker horses last start seems very much unders. He might win and make us look like mugs, but on simple academic stats he is probably favoured to run a place rather than win.
4th. Zamorar. He ran 4th at his last start and that seems to be his level. Much better suited back in a handicap race but the simple class of the top two should hold Zamorar out.
3rd. Riziz. 5kg from Luckygray and 3kg from Temple of Boom indicates the handicapper has done his job. But is this enough? Fitness, form and a love of the straight are all in Riziz’s favour, but it is just the Group One form of the top two that drops Riziz back to third.
2nd. Luckygray. A great first up record, a great record over 1200m and a multiple Group One winner. All this indicates a huge class advantage. But the 60kg does hold him back a touch. If this was a WFA race he would be close to a good thing, but he will clearly feel the 60kg late in the race. The big question is : ‘is he good enough to carry the 60kg?’ He might just well be.
1st. Temple Of Boom. Loves the straight, only has to give Riziz 3kg and saves his best races for Victoria. Yes he has been horribly out of form, but leading into his two Group wins up the straight he was also going terrible but turned it around.
By Zeb Armstrong
