Caulfield
This Saturday Caulfield hosts a really good meeting. The rail is out 9m and the wind will be howling northerly not to mention the track will be very hard. This generally means a horse on the pace will be greatly advantaged. Lord of the Sky will be hard to beat in the sprint race while Laidback Larry looks close to a good thing in the Mornington Cup preview. Gai actually has three horses in and all three look hard to beat.
Here is a quick preview of the two Group Three races.
Race 4. The Chairman’s Stakes. 1100m for two-year-olds.
Here we have eleven starters that includes three last start winners, one winner from two starts back, two horses that have placed in their careers, two horses returning from a spell and three horses making their debut. Two of the best trainers of juveniles in Australia Mick Price and David Hayes have the two outsiders in the field and they are only currently at $26. All the other nine runners are at 20-1 and under.
Winner – No.1. Bugatty $5.50. This colt was beaten on debut by the very smart Chivalry who is now one of the Blue Diamond favourites. In this race Bugatty finished in front of Akhlaaq who is highly rated and very smart. At his next start, the colt won at Flemington and did an extremely good job. We have to remember that this colt is trained by a Hall of Fame trainer that is on fire and all his young horses are flying. The only knock on him is that it will be a hot day and he is a colt; sometimes the lads get a bit distracted when it is hot, but other than that he looks to be honest, talented and an each way special at $5.50.
Hardest to beat – No.9. Nayeli $3.00. This filly is also trained by a Hall of Fame trainer in Gai Waterhouse. On debut she effortlessly beat Peggy Jean who beat Boomwaa two weeks ago in the Inglis Classic. It is a solid formline and if this race was at Randwick or Rosehill she would be much shorter in the market. But the race is at Caulfield and Sydney horses have to be risked at their first start at Caulfield. Plenty win there at their first attempt, but plenty more get rolled. Kingston Town never handled the track and plenty of others with much less ability have also struggled around the unique track. This filly is smart but perhaps worth a risk at the price at Caulfield.
Best long shot – No.3. Illustrious Lad $12. A solid winner on debut in Adelaide and rumour has it he has come on since then. If it is possible to make ground, don’t be surprised if this son of I am Invincible runs into a place. He is a handsome colt and can improve despite being unbeaten.
Race 6. The Manfred Stakes
Now this is a great race, but a very hard race. Eight horses all with a good chance, some with a great chance and perhaps one or two with champion potential. Fast ‘n’ Rocking was a Group Three winner last time in and did I like a really nice horse. The Quarterback is a tough gelding that will benefit from more racing but can fly fresh. Bull Point and Prince Harada are the two boom colts of the race. Bull Point put in run of the year in 2013 in the Golden Rose where he was tailed off but finished second after freaky sectionals late in the race. Prince Harada has always had big wraps on him but has been very unlucky so far in his career. Monkstone was a million dollar colt and Hard Stride was a last start winner. That leaves Worth a Ransom and Resistant, both of whom have a good each way chance and are well performed already in their careers.
Winner – No.5. Prince Harada $3.30. The small field and the hometrack advantage hopefully will eliminate any bad luck this colt can find. He has plenty of talent and has a big boom on him courtesy of his connections. He will be up near the speed, can peel out and fly home. The 1200m suits and Blake Shinn knows how to get a colt around Caulfield.
Hardest to beat – No.4. Bull Point $3.60. The 1200m and the first time at Caulfield are the two factors which are stopping this boy from being on top. He will be much better in the Australian Guineas over 1600m and maybe even in the Australian Cup. He needs time to balance, steady and storm home. At Caulfield on Saturday it looks as if the horses near the front will have time to put a gap on him before he gets ready to unleash his finishing burst. Caulfield is not his track, but he will still run nicely because he is a gun.
Best long shot – No.2. The Quarterback $7.00. The top two selections are both colts and if these two lads are trying to impress the ladies and don’t have their minds on job, then the hard tough gelding The Quarterback can strike. He will be much better suited in longer races and he does have a weight disadvantage in this race, however he has never run a bad race and he will most likely run well again here. It is just a matter of whether or not he is good enough. His effort won’t be questioned.
Good luck.
By Zeb Armstrong
