This race, now named after the great mare, has in the past been won by some magnificent horses. The race has been won by stayers on the way up, by sprinters who are reaching their peak or by Cox Plate aspirants who are aiming to be at their best for the Moonee Valley Classic.
Outside the Turnbull, this race is probably the best of the ‘non-Classic’ races and this year’s field is stacked with really good horses.
First of all we best look at the Group One winners in the race…
1. Manighar. 2012 Australian Cup, 2012 Ranvet, 2012 BMW
2. Mourayan. 2013 Sydney Cup.
3. Mr Moet. 2012 Railway Stakes
4. Ethiopia. 2012 ATC Derby.
5. Foreteller. 2013 Ranvet.
7. December Draw. 2011 Turnbull.
10. Masked Marvel. 2011 St Leger @ Doncaster, England.
12. Waldpark. 2011 German Derby.
Then there are the two race favourites No.6 – Sea Moon and No.8 – Puissance De Lune. These two horses are yet to win a Group One race but that is not really a strike against them. Sea Moon has run in four Group One races in three different countries with the best results of a second in the Breeders’ Cup in America and a third in the St Leger behind Masked Marvel in England. These are two of the best races in the world! Puissance De Lune has never ran in a Group One race; however the big grey entire has to be one of the most improved horses in Australia, maybe even the world and he has now won four in a row, all in good company.
And the rest – Tuscan Fire will be thereabouts and will be a force come Caulfield Cup day while Moudre can produce a good run first up. In fact Moudre ran third in this race last year behind Southern Speed and Manighar. Bit of Hell is a little bit of a mystery horse that ran a nice second to Strawberry Boy at his first Australia start. That leaves Let’s Make Adeal who would have to show Du Lune like improvement to be competitive in this race.
Verdict
This is a hard one. Puissance De Lune is the even money favourite and if his graph of improvement continues to rise and rise as it has been, then he will be very hard to beat. However this is the hardest field he has ever faced, it is his first Group One race ever and he will start at the shortest odds he ever has in a Group or listed race. Mr Moet is a Group One winner over the mile (as this race is) and he has been trialling very well. He ran a cracking race at his first ever Victorian start and has plenty of improvement left in him. Then there is Sea Moon. Yes he has been beaten in the St Leger in England by a horse in this race that is owned by the same people. But the entire did smack Dunaden in a race last year as well as run a really nice race in the Breeders’ Cup in America. If he brings his best he could be the best horse in the world, especially over 2000m and beyond. And old Manighar; he will have residual fitness from a long autumn / winter campaign and he was beaten an inch in this race last year by a very in-form mare.
4th. Sea Moon. He will need the run but look out for the rest of the spring.
3rd. Manighar. His best is very good and there is just a little whisper around that he is ready to go.
2nd. Puissance De Lune. He is the even money favourite and he may yet be a champion. It will be very surprising if he does not either run first or second.
1st. Mr Moet. The Perth visitor is fit, and is Group One winner over the mile in the past. He is currently at $13 and he has the turn of foot that is perfect for the long Flemington straight.
Good luck.
By Zeb Armstrong
