You could be forgiven for thinking the Puissance de Lune team was thumbing its nose at history.
After producing the Emirates Melbourne Cup favourite first-up in the P.B. Lawrence Stakes – a notoriously poor guide to the Spring majors, in particular the Melbourne Cup – the Darren Weir-trained grey will have his second-up start in Saturday’s Makybe Diva Stakes at Flemington.
The 1600-metre event, which will be run at Group 1 level for the first time, has been an only marginally better guide to the first Tuesday in November than the Lawrence, which is yet to be won by a Melbourne Cup winner.
At least there have been two horses complete the Makybe Diva Stakes/Melbourne Cup double, but you have to go back to Rain Lover in 1969 for the most recent.
Puissance de Lune is fancied to secure the first leg of the double, heading the TAB’s opening market at $1.90.
But whether the six-year-old wins or not, merely coming through the Makybe Diva hasn’t been the path to Melbourne Cup success of late with Jeune (1994) the most recent galloper to contest the Makybe Diva en route to Melbourne Cup success.
In the past 30 years, seven Makybe Diva Stakes winners have run in the Melbourne Cup and not one has figured in the placings.
The Makybe Diva has an only marginally better record in the Sportingbet Cox Plate, for which Puissance de Lune was favourite before Atlantic Jewel’s Memsie Stakes romp. Eight Makybe Diva winners have run in the Cox Plate since 1982 with Northerly the only one to do the double, while there have been two further placegetters.
Dulcify was the previous horse to do the double before Northerly and Almaarad is the only other Cox Plate winner in the past 30 years to have come through the Makybe Diva.
The Caulfield Cup is the major that the Makybe Diva has been a relevant guide to, having produced eight winners in the past 30 years including five of the six between 1999 and 2004.
But while history doesn’t paint a good picture for Puissance de Lune looking towards the majors, he has one significant historical factor in his favour relating to Saturday’s race.
Thirteen of the past 20 winners of the Makybe Diva have come through the Lawrence Stakes and Puissance de Lune is the only runner in this year’s Makybe Diva who contested the Lawrence. He will be looking to become the seventh horse to complete the Lawrence-Makybe Diva double.
Nine of this year’s Makybe Diva field are resuming from a spell and while first-uppers haven’t made a habit of winning the race that was first run in 1948 (over 2000m) and has been run at 1600m since 1965, it has been achieved recently by Confectioner (2005) and Littorio (2011).
Macedon Lodge imports Sea Moon, Masked Marvel and Mourayan, Ethiopia, December Draw and Waldpark are among those first-up this weekend.
One thing in Sea Moon’s favour is the man that will be aboard him, Craig Williams, who has won the past two editions.
The latter of those was Southern Speed, who became the first mare since Saleous (1996) to win the race. Lets Make Adeal – a granddaughter of former champion mare Let’s Elope – is the only mare in this year’s race.
Southern Speed also arrested the trend of upset results and while she didn’t start favourite – she, in fact, defeated $3.30 favourite Manighar – her $4.20 starting price was more palatable for most punters than the Littorio ($41) and Shocking ($18) the previous two years.
Northerly ($2.35, 2002) and Weekend Hussler ($1.85, 2008) are the only two favourites to have won the Makybe Diva since 2000.
In contrast, the $220,000 Group 2 Danehill Stakes, one of the key support events on Saturday’s card, has been a much better race for favourite backers.
The past four winners of the 1200m event for three-year-olds have all started favourite including three at odds-on. All four, plus the previous two winners Tan Tat De Lago and Aichi had all finished first or second at their previous start.
In relation to the day’s other $220,000 Group 2 event – the Let’s Elope Stakes – Zurella snapped a run that had seen nine consecutive Let’s Elope winners come off a run in the Cockram Stakes.
Five of this year’s Let’s Elope field contested the Cockram at Caulfield on 17 August; winner Octavia, runner-up A Time For Julia, Bonaria (fourth), Oasis Bloom (seventh) and You’re So Good (eighth).
– Racing Victoria
