Spring must be getting close because the better races are starting to attract a better class of horse. At Randwick on Saturday we have the Group Three WFA Missile Stakes that in the past has been won by Lonhro and this year’s favourite Rain Affair. On the card also is the listed Rosebud that will host some of the most promising three-year-olds that have been unveiled so far this season.
The Missile Stakes
The big question is… can a semi unfit and very old Hay List beat a flying Rain Affiar? Hay List has almost died about three times since last showing his best and Rain Affair recently won a trial against good company by almost ten lengths. It should be straight forward right? But no. Hay List has as much natural talent as any horse in work in Australia. If he runs at 90% that should almost be good enough to match it with Rain Affair’s 100% effort. Having said that, Hay List might not be at 90% and Rain Affair is probably the safe way to go.
What about the horses for the multiples? Mic Mac has been in form in recent races after a lean three years. Atomic Force is a multiple Group One winner but is getting old while Centennial Park seems to save his best runs for Melbourne racing. Title is a bit hit and miss and he rarely performs in the Group races while My Destiny has not won a race since summer 2011. The interesting runner is Oakleigh Plate winner Mrs Onassis; she was terrible at Caulfield first up, but this week has a good barrier and definite claims for victory. It is a little concerning that this now mare still is yet to win over 1200m.
Verdict…
4th. No.3. Mic Mac. A four time winner at 1200m and on his best he can get close to the superstars. He is fit and still seems to be improving despite his age. He has to be included.
3rd. No.5. Centennial Park. Just over two years ago, this gelding beat Love Conquers All and Hot Danish over the 1200m. On that form he will be hard to beat. However he is an eight-year-old and generally takes a little racing to come back to this best. Yet he is honest and should be coming home late.
2nd. No.1. Hay List. If he gets back to 95% of his best he will win another Group One race in his career. However, he has been injured then comeback then injured and comeback for years. It is probably fair to think he will need a run or two before he shows any promise. On natural talent he might be worth $1 each way but Rain Affair might just have his measure this time.
1st. No.2. Rain Affair. Has won this race in the past and is very hard to beat in races that are just under Group One level. He had a Brisbane campaign and will have residual fitness as displayed in his recent trial.
The Rosebud
The form in this race seems pretty easy to read and the best in the field have exposed themselves on multiple occasions already in heading towards the Golden Rose.
4th. No.1. Northern Glory. Finished behind Watabout at his last start, but he did not have the best run. Before his last start, Northern Glory won two races in devastating fashion and on his best he will be right in the finish.
3rd. No.2. Watabout. As mentioned he beat Northern Glory last time and Nash stays on despite Gai having two good chances. The only question we have to try and answer is… is the Eurozone / Bull Point form better than the Watabout / Northern Glory form. Gai rates Bull Point very highly so maybe that is the best form, but only just.
2nd. No.5. Eurozone. Yes this now Cummings Dynasty trained colt beat Bull Point last time but surely Bull Point got a much worse run and even missed the start a touch. However the colt is unbeaten and the Cummings’ Grandfather – Grandson combo really rate him. He will be hard to beat.
1st. No.3. Bull Point. The way he won his last start indicates he is set for greatness. In the start previous to that, Eurozone beat him but had a much better run. In his first start he weaved from back in the field to produce huge last sectionals to win. He might be a star and we might not get $3.50 on him very often after this week.
Good luck.
By Zeb Armstrong
