Historically speaking, the task confronting September Run in Saturday’s Newmarket Handicap looks slightly more daunting than it did prior to confirmation of the final field.
The Chris Waller-trained three-year-old is striving to become the 18th filly to win Australia’s most prestigious sprint race, but the first in more than 40 years to do so under at least 54kg.
Toy Show and Cap D’Antibes carried 54kg each, in 1976 and 1977 respectively, but the heaviest winning weight since by a filly was 53.5kg, by Miss Pennymoney (2000) and Alinghi (2005). Sunlight, the most recent filly to win, carried just 50.5kg two years ago.
But while September Run has more weight than those stars, that is only due to weights being raised 2kg. She was allocated 52kg when weights were initially assigned, but Nature Strip and Bivouac not accepting meant all runners were handed an extra 2kg.
So, even though weights were raised, September Run doesn’t meet any rivals worse off, but doesn’t have to contend with Australia’s best two sprinters, which you would have to think has only enhanced her chances.
September Run heads into the 1200-metre Group 1 with a similar three-year-old form profile to Sunlight, the only filly to complete the Coolmore Stud Stakes/Newmarket double since the Coolmore moved to Cup Week in 2006.
In fact, the six 3YO Newmarket winners in that time all ran in the Coolmore, with Wanted being the only one who did not place in the 3YO Group 1 sprint, while Weekend Hussler and Brazen Beau also did the double.
Brazen Beau won the Newmarket after finishing runner-up in the Black Caviar Lightning, which has been used as the final lead-up by six of the 10 Newmarket winners since the Lightning took up residence three weeks before the Newmarket.
Five of those six resumed in the Lightning, the race in which September Run beat home all bar Nature Strip at her first run since the Coolmore.
The only other race that has been used as a successful Newmarket lead-up in the past 13 years is the Oakleigh Plate.
Celebrity Queen – who is out to become the 12th horse to complete the Oakleigh Plate/Newmarket double – Kemalpasa, Brooklyn Hustle, Zoutori, Prophet’s Thumb, Bold Star and Standout are those out of the Oakleigh Plate engaged on Saturday, with Swats That, Halvorsen and Elite Street joining September Run out of the weight-for-age Lightning.
September Run’s compelling formlines have her tight in the market – $2.30 following the finalisation of the field – and punters have a good record when they gravitate to one as strongly as they have this year.
While 17 of the past 35 editions have been won by horses at double-figure odds, the past three to start $2.30 or shorter all delivered; Alinghi ($1.95, 2005), Weekend Hussler ($1.70, 2008) and Black Caviar ($1.18, 2011).
The most recent horse to start shorter than $2.30 and not win was Hareeba, who finished second to 16/1 shot All Our Mob at even money in 1995.
THE VERDICT: More often than not, when the market embraces one as strongly as it has SEPTEMBER RUN in a Newmarket, they deliver. That she comes through, and has performed well in, two races that have proven key form references in recent years, just strengthens the case.
– racing.com
