This race is a cracker. There are no two ways about it. It is the first time the race has been granted Group One status and some of the best horses in Australasia are either resuming or having their second or third start this preparation.
The Memsie despite only gaining Group One status this year has been won by some of the best horses in Australian racing history; classy winners of the race include So You Think, Weekend Hussler, Miss Finland, Sunline (twice), Manikato and Ajax (three times). The race has also been won by staying types who have gone on to win major spring Classics after saluting in the Memsie. Phar Lap won the Memsie second up (at 6-1 on) on his way to winning many spring Classics that year. Comic Court won the Memsie in 1950 second up on his way to winning the Melbourne Cup that year. In 2005 Makybe Diva won the Memsie first up on her way to winning her third straight Melbourne Cup. All this makes picking the winner in this race very difficult because in this year’s edition we have class horses and gun stayers all clashing at WFA. There are plenty of chances but hopefully we can narrow it down to four and work around them.
The first up stayers are an interesting bunch in this race because they are not your usual hard working stayers that can only possibly win one race… the Melbourne. They are a classy bunch that all are well performed at the shorter trips. Green Moon is of course a Melbourne Cup winner but he has never won over 1400m before despite running a nice 5th in this race last year. Fiorente has had two starts in Australia for a Melbourne Cup second and a third in the Group One 1400m All-Aged Stakes in Sydney. He has proven he can fly first up in a 1400m race as the Memsie is. Seville has only ever won one race and it was three years ago in Europe over 1550m. He did run a nice second in the Turnbull last year before going a miss. It is hard to see Team Williams having him completely wound up for this race. My Quest for Peace is a nice imported stayer that popped up in the winter in Brisbane with a couple of nice runs in sprint races. He will no doubt have residual fitness from this trip north; however My Quest for Peace has never won a race at a distance under 2000m and he will most likely show his best when the races get a little longer. Silent Achiever is a gun mare at 2000m and beyond and she has beaten the likes of Solzhenitsyn at a mile. Last time in she ran second first up in a 1400m race with 61kg. This mare definitely has the credentials to run well in this race.
The best of the stayers are most likely Fiorente and Silent Achiever; both of these classy staying types have performed well first up before.
And the rest. Well Atlantic Jewel has been protected like the whales in her seven race career. She has been scratched from good races as to save her for better races. Then she has been scratched from those races to save her for future races; then she got injured. There is no way Atlantic Jewel’s connections would run her first up in a 1400m race if she was not ready. She will be ready and will run very very well. Super Cool is a class act. He might be a gun. Last time in he ran third in a good 1400m race first up before taking all before him. He has beaten It’s A Dundeel when the kiwi champ was $1.50 and he has won a very talent packed Australian Cup. He is well placed in this race and as he is probably just looking to the Cox Plate, so he might be a little more wound up for this race than some of the others. It’s A Dundeel could be anything. He won the three-year-old Triple Crown as easily as any horse in the history of the series. Last preparation he was not far behind Pierro and Rebel Dane in a 1400m race before taking all before him at his next three starts. However he has never won an open class race and he has never won a race in Melbourne. Both these stats will no doubt change in the coming weeks, but perhaps on Saturday the champ might just need the run. Luckygray was ok first up and second up he has won three from four. He has won several Group races over 1400m and was well fancied in this race last year. He has to have a chance on natural ability and he is probably one of the most versatile horses in the field.
Verdict
The best of the staying brigade are Fiorente and Silent Achiever and they should be included somewhere somehow. Happy Trails ran really well in this race last year and he is always thereabouts but he may just be a little outclassed in this race. Second Effort needs a wet track but he is very fit while Ferlax while being an Australian Guineas winner would need to improve greatly to win this race. Ajeeb has won two of his last three and gave Puissance De Lune a nice run last time. He has massive scope for improvement but maybe he like Happy Trails at this stage is just a little outclassed in this race.
4th – No.9. It’s A Dundeel. This horse is a gun. But he is on a Cox Plate – Melbourne Cup program. He is not Makybe Diva (yet) and it is hard to see him being completely at his best already. If he is say 90% ready is that enough for him to beat Atlantic Jewel at WFA over 1400m? Unlikely.
3rd – No.10.Super Cool. He will be better suited at Flemington and he will be mighty hard to beat in the Cox Plate or the Mackinnon or the Turnbull or all three! He is probably ahead of It’s A Dundeel at this stage of their preparations, but expect him like his kiwi rival to be storming home late and looking great for the rest of the spring.
2nd – No.3. Luckygray. There is just something about this horse. He has a great second up record and will enjoy the WFA conditions of the Memsie. He is a winner of big races over 1400m in the past and he looks to have taken great benefit from his good first up run.
1st – No.14. Atlantic Jewel. How can you tip against her? She is a Group One winner over 1400m and is unbeaten. Not many horses win seven in a row and as mentioned earlier she has been protected in her career and would not be being run if there were any doubts over her fitness.
Good luck. It will be a great race.
By Zeb Armstrong
