The Group Two Warwick Stakes is an intriguing race, despite the fact that there is an odds on favourite in the race. This race has a rich history since its inception in 1923. Previous winners include Limerick (three times), Chatham (twice), Bernborough, Flight, Tulloch, Sky High (twice), Kingston Town (three times), Super Impose (twice), Filante (twice), Sunline, Lonhro (twice) and Metal Bender who carries the number one saddlecloth this week. Pinwheel made it back to back wins in the race last year. Chatham, Bernborough, Tulloch, Sky High, Kingston Town, Super Impose and Sunline all would sit in the top 25 greatest horses Australia has ever seen, so a champion regularly wins this race. Is there a champion in this field?
The stayers resuming are always interesting betting prospects in these types of races because they generally run well first up. Metal Bender, Foreteller, Beaten Up, Kelinni, Moriarty, Glencadam Gold, Sneak a Peak, Tremec and Hawkspur are all stayers resuming. That is a big percentage of the field. These types of horses usually run well, but they don’t win too often first up. That leaves the fit sprinters Rain Affair, Centennial Park plus the wildcard class middle distance horses Toydini and Streama. Centennial Park is not much good away from Melbourne, so can narrow it down to just the three winning chances in Rain Affair, Toydini and Streama?
Rain Affair is currently at $1.80, but these odds are based on a win two weeks ago, where the gelding was almost the biggest moral in the history of racing. He had a wet track (he is one of the best wet trackers in Sydney), very little competition and weight conditions to suit. This race is a touch harder, and he is under the odds at $1.80 considering the track will be dry. However he is the best winning chance in the race but should maybe be $2.50.
Streama is a gun; there are no two ways about it. Her last five races have been in Group One races where she has not finished more than 2.5 lengths from the winner in these races. She is a multiple Group One winner herself, but she has never won first up despite never missing a place first up. She has weight relief on Rain Affair but does she just need a run to get back to her best?
Toydini is a really nice horse who looks to have the world at his feet this time in. He has never won first up but has trialled really well in the last week. He is nominated for the Cox Plate and heading towards that race, he will no doubt pick off the odd good race. Toydini has been running against a really good class of horse during the entirety of his career.
Verdict.
4th. Glencadam Gold might be the best chance of the resuming stayers. He is 50-1 at the minute but has been in work for a long time. He has also trialled really well against two of the best horses in Gai’s stable recently. Gai is on fire with five winners over the last two days and also with three narrow seconds. Julienas is not as good as Glencadam Gold and he ran really well first up yesterday in the Hawkesbury Cup. The two stayers have been on similar programs to date.
3rd. Toydini. He was beaten as the two’s on favourite at his last start in the autumn and the connections will have him ready to go first up to try and get that one back as soon as possible. He is a talent and potential spring drawcard horse should he hit his best form.
2nd. Streama. Only just. If she had a first up win on her resume she would be on top, but Rain Affair might just have the fitness edge at this stage despite both horses having very similar ability.
1st. Rain Affair. He will be out in front, he loves Warwick Farm and even if the track is dry he will still be hard to run down. $1.80 is very short but it does indicate a great number of people feel he is home already. But we must remember that this is a very different race to the one he won a fortnight ago. He should have been $1.05 in that race two weeks ago. This race is much harder but he will be up there and whatever beats him will win.
By Zeb Armstrong
