Black-Type races in Sydney on Saturday
Race 3. The Concorde Stakes 1000m
This race is just a little thin. Hay List at the top of the weights has a lot of question marks over his health and fitness, but at even 90% of his best he would be $1.50 in this field and would win by 6. Sessions is a good young horse from the Snowden camp and he indeed has a great turn of foot, but he perhaps is better suited over a little more distance as to give him time to unleash his wonderful sprint.
4th. No.9. Whittington. A promising colt that has been trialling very well.
3rd. No.2. Decision Time. Won this race a couple of years ago and is very good first up.
2nd. No.8. Sessions. Six starts, four wins and two seconds says it all. He only had one start last time in but it was a terrific win. He will start favourite and will be mighty hard to beat.
1st. No.1. Hay List. Every racing fan in Australia except Peter Snowden wants Hay List to win this race. He has almost died a few times recently but he is the second best sprinter Australia has seen for a long time. Yes there are question marks galore about his form, fitness, health and longevity, but if he bring anywhere near his best, the $6 has to be appealing in a thin race.
Race 4. The Furious Stakes 1200m
Every horse in this race has some sort of chance based on their two-year-old form, their breeding or their return as a three-year-old. A case can be made for all ten runners despite the fact that there is a two time Group One winner in the field.
4th. No.10. Tulla Touch. Fit and unbeaten and her trainer David Vandyke has a marvellous strike rate. A clear longshot chance.
3rd. No.11. Forever Loved. One start for one win at Canterbury and she is bred to get better with age and more distances in her race. Gai has thrown her in this race after only having her for a very short period of time so that might be a good guide that she could be something special.
2nd. No.1. Guelph. This filly is a two time Group One winner and the clear best filly (at this stage) in the race. However she improved with plenty of racing during her last preparation and she appears to be a filly that will thrive over a little more distance. She will be extraordinarily hard to beat.
1st. No.6. Greytfilly. There is just something about this filly. She misses the start, she does plenty wrong, she has had a little setback and she is $21. But on the rare occasion that she has got it all right, she has flown home and reeled off some amazing sectionals. At $21 she is definitely worth $1 each way.
Race 5. The Ming Dynasty 1400m
Gai Waterhouse has a big hand in this race, but the favourite Aussies Love Sport, up until his last start had really done nothing but cost the punters money. He won his last start at $15 and now is favourite in a Group Three race. He may turn out to be very good, but this indicates the race is a very open affair.
4th. No.1. Champollion. This colt is already a Group Three winner and he is very versatile. He trialled very well recently and natural class should take him a long way in this race.
3rd. No.8. Aussies Love Sport. He did win really well at his last start and he may well have turned a corner. But at $4, there seems to be a little bit more value with the top two selections in this race.
2nd. No.12. Open Book. This gelding is unbeaten and at his last start he won most impressively by 4 lengths. He is bred to get over a bit of distance, he is full of confidence, has a good barrier and a good jockey which all leads to hopefully a good showing here.
1st. No.10. Hydro. After a brilliant first up run, the wonderfully bred colt has been working the house down at Tulloch Lodge. He is by a champion sire and out of a Group One winning mare and after a long spell has comeback in remarkable order. He is probably almost as good as Aussies Love Sport on pure talent but is three times the odds on Saturday.
Race 6. Tramway Stakes 1400m
At the time of typing, news has filtered through that Norzita is out of the spring and therefore this race, so a new plan is needed. She looked close to a weighted certainty. It is disappointing to lose a potential spring drawcard less than a week into the spring. Despite the loss of the gun mare, this is a very good race with a very even field or horses that are maybe just that little bit under the best of the best.
4th. No.1. Shoot Out. He has a lot of weight, but in recent times he has been sensational first up. In fact he has won Group One races first up at his last two preparations. 60.5kg is a big weight, but he is tough, hard and classy and will no doubt be thereabouts in the final furlong.
3rd. No.4. Sizzling. It is simple when it comes to backing this horse; at small tracks like Warwick Farm, Doomben and Moonee Valley leave him out and at big tracks like Rosehill, include him. He has a huge amount of talent and will have taken huge benefit from his good first up run.
2nd. No.2. Sincero. A Group One winner over this distance and he was really good last time in first up in winning the Memsie over 1400m. 1400m – 1600m seems to be his best distances and his talent and consistency has never been questioned. The 60.5kg is a bit of a worry but he deserves it.
1st. 8. Fawkner. Yes yes yes. First up last time in on this day last year, this boy won a listed race at Flemington by 4 lengths. He has not looked back since that day. Fawkner gets weight relief from the big names at the top and he is yet to run a bad race in his career. Fawkner might be one of the best bets on the program and he is currently at $5!
Race 7. The Chelmsford 1600m
As discussed earlier in the week on the Home of Racing, this race has perhaps the greatest honour role of any race in Australia. http://homeofracing.com.au/
There doesn’t appear to be any Bernboroughs or Tullochs in this year’s edition, but there are some really nice staying types that are all looking towards Melbourne.
4th. No.10. Lightinthenite. This boy has always run in the best races but he does tend to mix his form a touch. He is three from five first up and trialled ok a few weeks ago. His best is very good and he will have some residual fitness from a long autumn / winter campaign.
3rd. No.3. Beaten Up. A Group One winner that has also been placed in a listed mile race in Australia. The gelding was very good first up and as he has done in recent times, he will most likely come right on second up.
2nd. No.1. Metal Bender. This gelding has a bit of Hay List about him. He gets injured, comes back, runs well, gets injured, comes back and runs well again. He has a tonne of talent and was sensational first up. He can never be counted out.
1st. No.7. Bayrir. A very classy import that was unlucky in his first Australian start. He has obviously settled in well and despite probably needed more distance in his races, his class should get him very close to a win here.
By Zeb Armstrong
