On Saturday at Rosehill, there are eight races, with eight pronounced favourites. Gai Waterhouse has a chance to win almost every race on the card and the longest priced favourite for the day in $3.30. There are small fields and plenty of odds on chances.
Flemington is a different kettle of fish altogether; in particular race 6, the C.S. Hayes Stakes and race 7, the Black Caviar Lightening Stakes. These are both feature races and both look extremely hard to find the winner in. Here goes…
C.S. HAYES STAKES
There is a rumour going around right now that Polanski might be scratched out of this race, and usually when the word ‘scratch’ gets flung around, it is true. So leaving Polanski out (if he runs he has a pretty good chance…), there looks to be three main chances at a short quote (Hucklebuck, The Quarterback, Prince Harada), five chances at double figure odds and four others at big odds.
Hucklebuck won like a champion in Adelaide at his first start this time in. He has been tried in this class of race before and has been left slightly wanting and therefore he most probably can be risked despite being the favourite. Hucklebuck only beat Kushadasi by 0.8 lengths in Adelaide, yet Kushadasi is around 4x times the odds that Hucklebuck is. Prince Harada has to be on his last chance. He is extremely talented but he is turning into a bit of a non-winner. He will love Flemington, he will get back and if given a nice break in the run, he definitely can storm home and he is probably worth one more chance. The Quaterback was the eye catching run out of the Bull Point / Prince Harada race. He was well and truly disadvantaged at the weights, and he also got way back at the usually on pace biased Caulfield. He stormed home for a brilliant third and he definitely has a red light on his head and he also made page one of all blackbooks around the traps.
Criterion has been consistent through his entire career and is not without a chance. San Diego was beaten a lip by Polanski in the Norman Robinson during the spring and he loves Flemington. Monkstone, Kushadasi and Worth A Ransom are all worth a thought because they are all nicely performed around some of their rivals in this race.
Verdict:
Winner – 6. The Quarterback. He was simply too good at his last start to be left out here. He flew past Prince Harada and had the race been a little longer, he might have given Bull Point a fright. He is a tough gelding and there is no wildcard about him; we know what he will give and should he get some luck and produce his best, he looks an each way special.
Hardest to beat – 7. Prince Harada. This colt needs room and he will get it at Flemington. He can drop out and wait and wait and wait before being unleashed. He has plenty of talent and with the temperature on Saturday set to be just a nice 27 degrees, this colt’s ‘sweat factor’ should be at a minimum. The weather played havoc with this colt at his last start but he should be much better on Saturday. The odds are such that both The Quarterback and Prince Harada can be backed.
Best longshot – 11.Kushadasi. This gelding finished alongside Hucklebuck at his first start back form a spell. He won well at his last two starts last preparations. He has a heap of talent and at 4x the odds of Hucklebuck, he is worth an each way ticket.
GROUP ONE BLACK CAVIAR LIGHTENING STAKES
Every horse in this race has a better than good chance. But perhaps the two mares standout above the rest as the two to beat.
The why and why nots of each runner…
1. Shamexpress. Yes – A Group One winner up the straight before and almost beat Buffering at his last start up the straight. No – Much better suited over 1200m and has to give weight to better horses under the WFA scale.
2. Pago Rock. Yes – So very consistent and never ever runs a bad race. He can exploded off a hot speed and there is no hotter speed race in Australia than this one. No – Never won at 1000m and may just be slightly outclassed.
3. Aeronautical. Yes – Almost won the Newmarket down the straight last year and he proved that day that he has the class and speed to compete at the top level. He also has a great first up record. No – Another who might not have time in 1000m to get to his top gear.
4. Esprit De Bullet. Yes – Is a winner this track and trip and has won nine races at 1000m. He will be storming home from the back at $101. No – The horses he flies past at the end of 1000m are usually getting tired. Snitzerland won’t be getting tired and will not wilt. He might just be outclassed but $101 is overs.
5. Unpretentious. Yes – Unbeaten at the distance and was a brilliant winner first up last start in a Group Two race. No – Was beaten six lengths by Shamexpress and Buffering down the straight at his last attempt and therefore he looks to enjoy having a bend in his races rather than a straight run.
6. African Pulse. Yes – Three starts this track and trip for two wins and a second. Has smashed a very in-form Karuta Queen over this track and trip. No – Has never won second up.
7. Samaready. Yes – A multiple Group One winner who is in the top three or four sprinters in the land. Her last two first up runs have resulted in brilliant wins. No – Perhaps Snitzerland will be off and gone before Samaready gets warmed up. But she is either the top or second pick.
8. Snitzerland. Yes – The fastest horse in the field, and she has trialled brilliantly and looks perfectly set for this race. A three time winner at the 1000m is another plus. No – She can be a little hit and miss. Her latest run was on Oaks day beaten by Lankan Rupee by an inch.
9. Thermal Current. Yes – Never runs a bad race and is usually running on well first up. No – Probably well outclassed in this field but not without an each way chance fresh.
10. Bernabeu. Yes – Won this track and trip during last year’s carnival and looked like a very special horse in the process. He has since smashed Shamexpress in a jumpout and he looks a serious horse. No – Unproven in this class and there is a chance he might have left too much on the track in his jumpout the other day.
11. Brilliant Bisc. Yes – Beat Guelph on debut over 1000m and was really good first up behind Shamal Wind. No – Has not won as a three-year-old and might just not quite be up to a few of the others in this field.
12. Boomwaa. Yes – Two-year-old with just 46kg and he might be hard to catch. No – Two-year-old males have a terrible record in this race.
13. Bugatty. Yes – Exactly the same circumstances as Boomwaa.
Verdict:
It comes down to Snitzerland and Samaready.
Winner – 8. Snitzerland. She is just so very fast and she looks to get the prefect sit just behind the two youngsters and will be very hard to get past. At her last start down the straight over 1000m she was just beaten by the very in-form Lankan Rupee. She is also at very nice odds considering her record.
Hardest to beat – 7. Samaready. In a flip of the coin decision, this mare gets pushed back to second simply because the race is 1000m. If it was 1200m like it will be in the Newmarket you would almost declare this mare a moral. She will give Snitzerland a start and there has to be a question mark about whether or not she can make up the gap.
Best longshot – There are four horses that look to be exceptional odds. 3. Aeronautical, 4. Esprit De Bullet, 6. African Pulse and 11. Brilliant Bisc all look to be great each way chances. Perhaps the best is 6. African Pulse. He has a great record and was slightly unlucky first up this time in. He enjoys room and will be thereabouts at huge odds.
Good luck.
By Zeb Armstrong
