Has this race crept up on us a little? Perhaps with just one acknowledged superstar in the field, this race has slipped under the radar a touch with all the attention on the upcoming Championships with Fiorente and the likes.
Earthquake is the clear favourite and she deserves to be. She rises to the occasion every time she runs, and so far in her career she has not even really looked like being beaten. There are some nice horses also in the race that are at huge odds. Here is a brief rundown of some of the main chances.
1. Unencumbered. The Magic Millions winner looked pretty good at his last start before being overrun by Ghibellines. He gets back and storms home so barrier 14 should not be a worry. He will put in an honest run and is a good place chance, but can he get over Earthquake? Unlikely. Place chance.
3. Ghibellines. This colt is hitting form at the right time. He has a gun hoop aboard (Bowman) and produced a blistering run last start to win the Todman. He was up and running last October and ran 4th in the Breeders’ Plate. His best can challenge Earthquake.
4. Valentia. This high priced colt has won this last two and surely you can’t discount any Waterhouse runner in the Golden Slipper. He tends to have a little look around when he hits the front and he will be more suited in the Sires’ and even the Champagne. He is in winning form and looks great each way value.
6. Law. This colt has gone from one of the favourites in this race to almost 100-1 based on one below par run. He did not like the wet ground that day, and if it rains for Saturday, he might be a real long shot. But if it stays dry, he is massive overs; he has beaten several of the chances in this race in his career to date and he might be worth a small each way bet.
9. Earthquake. Is this filly a certainty? She is the best horse in the race, but due to a small issue and the possibility of a wet track we might even get $3 about her on Saturday. That looks like a big price for an unbeaten filly that has easily beaten most of these horses in the past. She is clearly the one to beat for mine and as we saw in the Blue Diamond, wide barriers tend to be insignificant in short two-year-old races. And one thing is for sure… Snowden would not be running this filly if he felt she was not 100% right. She looks the winner.
10. Mossfun. If it rains, this filly is the challenger. Her owner has the surname of Duckworth, which is of course the first name in the famous system that decides cricket matches played in the rain. That is not really relevant, but it is maybe a little omen tip should the rain come. She has won on the wet, she pushed Earthquake last start and she appears to be very honest. She is in a great stable and James McDonald will put her wherever he wants and she looks a super chance should Earthquake not run to her best.
11. Oakleigh Girl. The wildcard in this race. She has trialled twice brilliantly since running a brave second in the Magic Millions. She can sit up on the lead and be very hard to get past; she has never seen a wet track, but she has won trials on dead tracks, so the slow should not be too much of trouble should the rain come. The second pick for mine.
12. Eloping. Not exactly sure why this filly is 70-1. She won a race recently by 6 lengths, and she was not beaten far by Bring me the Maid the start before that. In the Blue Diamond Prelude she was not beaten far by Earthquake after a little bit of a tough run. She can sit on the pace or sit back and she is the best value runner at 70-1. Good place chance.
13. Alpha Miss. This filly gets a mention because she is a winner on a slow track. She was not beaten far by Earthquake last start and on that occasion she came flying home. She is a readymade two-year-old that has only ever missed a place once and she continues to run well each and every start. Another solid place chance.
14. Bring Me The Maid. This filly had no right to win the other day on the heavy track. She circled the field and extended well on the going in the straight. It has proved hard throughout history for horses to back up and win the Slipper seven days after a win, especially a win on a wet track. She will run well and if there is a mad pace up front, she has the finish to storm over the majority of the field in the last 200m. Good each way chance.
Verdict:
10th. Ghibellines
9th. Alpha Miss
8th. Law
7th. Bring Me The Maid
6th. Unencumbered
5th. Mossfun
4th. Eloping
3rd. Valentia
2nd. Oakleigh Girl
1st. Earthquake
Earthquake to win, Eloping the best value and Law and Valentia the best wildcards.
Good luck!
By Zeb Armstrong
