Formally the Feehan, this race in recent years has been won by the likes of Lad of the Manor, Whobegotyou, El Segundo, Fields of Omagh, Northerly and Sunline; all of these winners have either won or ran really well in the Cox Plate in their year of winning. This year the race has some exciting prospects as well as several Group One winner and a few that are – shall we say just making up the numbers.
So what horses (on class and based on the market) will find it very hard to win? Sangster is a two time Group One winner but surely he will be looking for Flemington and the first Tuesday in November. Seville has not won a race for three years and that was in a 1500m two-year-old race in Europe; he has run last at his most recent race however last preparation he did run a nice 4th in a mile race in Adelaide behind Linton. Spacecraft can occasionally pull out a great run at Moonee Valley but he has just one win in his last 35 starts but it was at the Valley. He is a winner this track and trip but that was three years ago and in a much weaker class of race. Lidari is $8 for this race and he was indeed an impressive winner first up. But he won that race after a stablemate did all the early work and was left a sitting duck. Lidari will be much better suited in the Turnbull and any other subsequent races at Flemington. Hornets’ Nest was the last horse before Foreteller to beat Puissance De Lune and he did this in a run of four good wins in and around Warrnambool. He is first up in this race and is $151; if he wins it would be a monumental upset but you never know; he probably won’t find his way into many people’s quaddies.
So who can win? Happy Trails won this race last year and he is in great form and has claims to be one of the best milers in the country. Fiorente is a brilliant horse but is the entire speedy enough to win this race and win the Melbourne Cup in two months’ time? He is very short at $3.50 considering he has never seen the Valley, but he is very good and pure class and talent will take him a long way in this race. Super Cool is a gun; he might be one of the biggest earners of the spring. It is unfortunate that he will have to beat his champion stablemate Atlantic Jewel if he is to win some big spring races. Having said that, the mare is not in this race and he is almost the next best horse in the land so surely he will be hard to beat here. Then there is Bass Straight; this horse showed promise as a three-year-old, he loves the Valley and he will no doubt have residual fitness from a big autumn campaign. His run first up at 1300m was really good and although he lacks the class of some of his rivals in this race he may just be a surprise packet. The other two in the market are last start winner Desert Wizard and speedy front runner Ajeeb. Both these horse are in form and have a definite chance in the race. Desert Wizard was especially impressive at his last start and despite this race being a huge jump in grade he is unbeaten and might just be something very special.
4th. Desert Wizard. It takes a really good horse to be unbeaten in their first three starts, no matter where they were run. This gelding has been winning with authority, he is fit and so far in his career he had demonstrated that he can sit on the pace or swoop from the back. He is versatile and on the rise and will make his presence felt.
3rd. Fiorente. This horse is really good and he has got Flemington written all over him. He will be extremely hard to beat in the Turnbull and the Mackinnon and he will probably be one of the hardest to beat outside of Atlantic Jewel in the Cox Plate. The 1600m is well short of his best, but if there is a hot tempo and it is possible to make up ground, he does have a strong sprint and he will no doubt be flying home.
2nd. Super Cool. Yes he is one of the best horses in the country but his best is usually produced at the races between 1800m and 2400m. He will be hard to beat in the Cox Plate and the Caulfield Cup, but on this occasion he is second up, and with a long preparation in mind and he might just benefit from this outing. He will indeed jump the favourite and he is clearly the hardest to beat, but he is getting very short and our top selection is now representing very good value.
1st. Happy Trails. This gelding is one of the best milers in the country. He has ten starts at the 1600m for several wins and many great placings. He won the Emirates mile last year, plus this race and he finished less than a length from More Joyous in the 2012 Doncaster. The way he won this race last year might just be the way he will do it this year; last year he held off the spruik horse Green Moon. This year he will probably have to hold off Super Cool, but he has proven he is up for a fight and he indeed has a great deal of talent and is very hard to beat at the mile.
By Zeb Armstrong
