The first thing we have to realise when analysing this race is that Catkins is not Sunline.
Catkin is a ripper, but she is not Sunline, yet she has a Sunline like weight. If she is to win this race, she will want to be a superstar, and she might be but she has to be a risk with 58kg at the $4. The other two grey mares in the field are over the odds and look really good value.
Arinosa is out to have favourite distance where she has had four starts for two wins and two seconds. She is unbeaten this track and trip. Fire Up Fifi hated the Warwick Farm circuit last start and in this race she meets Catkins with 2 kilos less in the weights despite beating her last preparation and being very close to her in the Group One Myer Classic. Up until the Chipping Norton Day at Warwick Farm, Sweet Idea had never missed a place in her ten start career. She did not go a yard at Warwick Farm, but now she returns to a track where she has had great success. The two staying mares Royal Descent and Dear Demi both have obvious claims, especially if it is possible to run on on the day. Hana’s Goal is an interesting mare. She is from Japan! The last time Japan sent horses over here, they ran one two in the Melbourne Cup. This mare will be fit and she might just surprise. Bonaria and A Time For Julia always run well and they are coming off good wins. The four horses down on the minimum all also have some claims to victory.
It is a very tricky race. There really is only a 4.5kg spread in weights with 17 fillies and mares all in pretty good form. Catkins can clearly win, but only champion mares have ever won this race with 58kg or over. Is Catkins a champion? Not yet, but she has the potential. She will give her best, but the weight looks as if it might catch up with her late in the race.
Verdict:
Winner – No.6. Fire Up Fifi $15. This mare always takes a run to get her bearings in a new city. She has had her warm up run in Sydney and now she is ready to rock ‘n’ roll. The 1500m suits, she is in really well at the weights and most importantly, she is very good and usually gives her best.
Hardest to beat – No.1. Catkins $4. It is clearly Catkins. She has to give weight not only to the two good staying mares, but to plenty of other mares that have finished very close to her in the past. But really, she is untapped. She could be anything and if the luck goes her way, she will be there somewhere at the finish. However the weight simply looks like it will stop her. She is also jumping from a very wide barrier which won’t help.
Best longshot – A tie! No.5. Arinosa $21 and No.9 Sweet Idea $13. Both these girls are really good and usually start very close to favourite in their races. They both have huge scope for improvement and are both well worth a small each way bet.
By Zeb Armstrong
