Last year on the Home of Racing, we couldn’t have been any more confident about Bel Sprinter at $16. He bolted in and we got the cash. However this year with the track currently being heavy and Bel Sprinter having top weight, the confidence is not high at all. In fact it is not high on this race at all and it is only due to the wet track.
Rain Affair does not deserve a mention considering how much money he has cost this lowly racing scribe in particular… or does he? He had had eight starts on wet tracks for seven wins and a 2nd.
He also loves the 1100m (5 from 7) and Rosehill (4 from 6). But he does find a way to lose. In fact he just gives up, but on a wet track he does have an advantage. Temple of Boom has won the same amount of Group One races as Bel Sprinter yet he has 2.5kg less than him in this race. He has had 11 starts on the wet for 5 wins and 4 seconds. Tiger Tees had had 5 starts on slow or worse for 3 wins and a 2nd from one on the heavy. Bel Sprinter has never been on slow or heavy; neither has Sessions and Villa Verde has had one go and was thrashed.
The track is a worry but so are the handicaps. This is almost a good old fashion handicap.
The spread is 6kg where in the past it has been 2 – 3kg. Bel Sprinter looks to have too much weight when compared to Famous Shamus. These two horses finished almost alongside each other in the Challenge Stake and Famous Shamus is a winner on the wet. The speedster Kencella has never been on the wet but does have a nice weight. He will be able to lead and might kick away and be hard to run down. The 1100m at Rosehill is famous for being a leader bias trip. Horses that get in front over this track and trip hardly ever get run down by swoopers. But does the heavy track bring these speedsters back to the field? This race is a deadest mystery. But having said all that, there is a theory…
Verdict:
Winner – No.13. Whittington $16. This colt has only ever had one start on a wet track and he went terribly. But that was in the 2013 Golden Slipper and that was a year ago. He has won a trial on the wet track and according to the Gai Waterhouse trackwork reports, which are free to read every day on Gai’s website, this colt is flying. He ran really well against many of these horses last start and now he finds himself right down on the minimum. He might just thrive on the heavy and be impossible to catch. $16 is great value and he looks one of those lightweight chances that will either run a career best or not go a yard in the bog and drop out. while the bottom weight Anatina is one $16 allows us to risk very little and maybe get a good payout.
Hardest to beat – No.4. Rain Affair $7. This gelding is one of the best wet trackers in Australia, but if he does not run first or second in this, then he will be sacked forever! He will bowl along in front and if the other chances don’t handle the track, he might just bolt in. He might also give up in the straight… you just never know. He is well placed this week and he does have conditions to suit.
Best longshot – It is a three way tossup between No.9. Villa Verde $8, No.6. Temple of Boom $8.50 and No.8. Tiger Tees $14. It has to go to Tiger Tees. This boy is very fast and he is proven on the wet track. He has no weight and deserves a small each way go.
By Zeb Armstrong
