A lot of the greatest horses to ever run in Australia have won this race including Tulloch, Kingston Town and Phar Lap. Last year there was an out and out superstar in the race named It’s A Dundeel. He won untouched by 7 lengths.
This year there is no stand out, although there is a New Zealand Derby winner and a Cox Plate winner in the race. There are just three runners in the race that have ever seen a wet track and that is a bit of a worry; the three with heavy track experience are Tupac Amaru, Atlante and Teronado. The other 14 runners have never seen a wet track. So where to look? We have to start with the established superstars, the Cox Plate winner Shamus Award and the New Zealand Derby winner Puccini. Can either of these horses handle a wet track? Who knows but they certainly have a class edge.
Dissident is a grinder and he looks as if he will handle the track; he is a regular winner of late and will most likely be out in front bowling along. Criterion, Savvy Nature and Thunder Fantasy all ran well last spring and all are coming through the VRC Derby. These three horses all are looking for the 2000m , but again the rain is the worry. Atlante ran well on a slow track in the Hobartville and it appears as if the 2000m will suit. The only other horse really in the market is Teronado which is a big tip around town at the minute. There is also Order of the Sun who was not too bad behind Boban and It’s A Dundeel in the Chipping Norton Stakes. So where to look?
Verdict:
Winner – No.4. Puccini $4.60. This colt, along with Shamus Award has the biggest chance of becoming a champion and this race is generally won by champions (there are of course exception). He produced run of the year to win the NZ Derby which gave him three wins in a row all at Group level. Kiwi horses tend to like the wet track when they come to Australia and despite Puccini coming back in distance, he looks a potential superstar and can be trusted in this very complicated race.
Hardest to beat – No.1. Shamus Award $7. Danny O’Brien would not be running a 20 million dollar colt over 2000m on a bog track if he did not think it could win. Shamus Award was swamped by Fiorente in the Australian Cup, but now he is back to his own age and he is a winner over 2000m before. Go with the class on the mud if there are no logical swimmers in the field.
Best longshot – No.13. Tupac Amaru $26. This horse is pretty slow but he can go in the mud. If the track is genuinely heavy and the rest of the field struggle, he will be the one coming home. No.11. Order of the Sun has been set for the Derby for a long time and is probably also worth a small each way bet.
By Zeb Armstrong
