Generally the best filly in this race wins. But there is no stand out this year and the best filly Zanbagh has bar plates for the first time and has drawn an awful barrier.
The two kiwi fillies are also pretty good; Rising Romance almost won the NZ Derby which is pretty rare for a filly and Miss Mossman is the New Zealand Oaks winners. Solicit was in the wrong part of the track at her last start and was beaten as the short priced favourite. She is much better than what she displayed that night and will bounce back well here. The only other two winning chances for mine are Marianne and Suavito. Both these horses ran past Solicit at Moonee Valley and both look as if they will love the 2000m.
The best of the roughies appear to be Interspersed, All Cerise and Forever Loved. Here is a brief rundown of the main hopes…
1. Solicit. The class filly of the field. She is unbeaten on a slow track and she just looks perfectly suited to the 2000m. In ten career starts she has only missed the money twice and at her last race over 2000m in the Wakeful on Oaks Day at Flemington, she was beaten less the two lengths by Kirramosa and May’s Dream after getting held up in the straight. Both of those fillies would be well fancied in this race.
2. Zanbagh. This filly is probably the best staying filly in the field. She toyed with her opponents at Kembla Grange and the more rain the better for her. She can sit up on the speed or can charge from the back off a hot speed. She is wearing bar plates that usually don’t help but she might just be classy enough to overcome this and the extremely wide barrier.
3. Marianne. Here we have a filly that is in spectacular form and is trained by a bloke who knows how to get a horse over a trip. She has had eight starts and only missed the money once and she is forever running on which indicates the 2000m will suit. She is at a generous price at the minute and if you have been with her over the last two months, then stick with her.
4. Rising Romance. We liked Puccini last week in the Rosehill Guineas, so by default, we have to like this filly in this race. She almost beat Puccini in the Guineas and also got pretty close to him in the Derby. Remember she is a filly! She is a class act and is in tremendous form and looks set to run well.
5. Miss Mossman. One of the most experienced fillies in the field, this filly is the NZ Oaks winner. But she was a roughie the day she won the Oaks, but she still won it and she had been in pretty good form heading in to that Classic race. She will run well here.
6. Suavito. This filly has a wider barrier than Zanbagh! She has had seven starts in her career and has never missed a place and she should almost have won her last start at Moonee Valley. She has been running well on class and always has looked a filly that will thrive over 2000m. She will be storming home and looks hard to hold out.
8. All Cerise. This filly has been set for this race and the Oaks for a long time. She ran pretty well against the boys after a nice little freshen up and she will be grinding home in this race.
9. Interspersed. Yet another lightly raced filly that is in tremendous form. She was not beaten very far by Zanbagh at Kembla Grange and before that she won a very deep Canberra Guineas. Another good each way chance.
12. Forever Loved. We can’t sack this filly based on one bad run. She was in the wrong part of the track last start and stopped as if shot. But she is very tough, can bowl along and is miles over the odds at $34.
Verdict:
Winner – 2. Zanbagh. It was a toss-up between this filly and Solicit, but with the threat of rain, Zanbagh gets the nod. She is a ripper and will get back and run on from her wide barrier. She is also the early Oaks pick and deserves to win this race. She is more the number one seed than the clear standout, but she will run very honestly and is easily good enough to win.
Hardest to beat – 1. Solicit. We are getting each way odds about this filly and she looks a lock to run a place at least. She will be near the front, can run 2000m and is classy enough to give a few of these the slip and be hard to run down. A great each way chance.
Best longshot – 12. Forever Loved. This filly has been aimed at this race and the Oaks for a long time and she is tough enough to bowl along out in front and be hard to catch. She is unbeaten on a slow track which is a bonus and $34 just seems overs at this stage.
By Zeb Armstrong
