Australian Guineas day. Flemington Saturday 1 March 2014
Race 1.
No.1. Eloping. This filly was not beaten far by Earthquake in the Blue Diamond Prelude. She can get up on the speed, kick and is very hard to get past and with this race being back to 1000m, Eloping looks the one to beat. There are plenty of nice two-year-olds in this race, but on race form and the probable track pattern, Eloping looks a very nice bet.
Race 2.
No.6. The Big Steel. This horse has been saving his best racing for Darwin of late. However last start at Flemington, the big grey gelding gave an almighty kick and was not beaten far by some very promising types. On Saturday, the gelding has as little weight as he has carried in years, and with no clear stars in the race, the $8 might be the way to go on an each way basis. He is no world beater but he is consistent and fit and he does try very hard.
Race 3.
No.1. Prince of Penzance. There are some very slow horses in this race, but Prince of Penzance is not one of them. He has his share of weight but he is clearly the classiest horse in this race. The field is made up of non-winners, jumpers and horses that are screaming for the 3000m. Over 2600m, Prince of Penzance should simply be too classy when the whips are cracking. He is almost at each way odds so perhaps that is play; however, over the last few years on this day, the clear best horse has been winning this race. Hopefully the run continues.
Race 4.
No.1. Elite Elle. This is a tricky race. Elite Elle is probably the best horse in the field, but she does have a big weight for a mare. Last preparation she was generally struggling with the big weights but flying and almost unbeatable with the low weights. Over her recent spell she has no doubt thrived and grown and with Craig Williams aboard, the weight might not be an issue. She is the tip, but with minimal confidence.
Race 5.
No.1. Power Princess. This mare has come to Melbourne with a big boom on her. She was terrible at Caulfield, but she is a back-marker and at Caulfield she was not suited. She will love the big track at Flemington and at her best she would be very hard to beat in this race. The Moody trained Floria will be hard to beat, but the 1400m just look ideal for Power Princess. She is well and truly in the each way price range and her breathtaking finish should see her thereabouts somewhere.
Race 6.
No.4. Strawberry Boy. Here is the best bet of the day. If this boy is right he should just win. He has had his fair share of problems over his career, but with just 55kg he will fly out in front and should prove very hard to run down. This horse was beaten three inches by Boban at his last start, and that was when Boban was the best middle distance horse in Australia. Dany the Fox looks a nice horse in the making, while Fat Al is a Group One winner, albeit a very out of form Group One winner. Strawberry Boy will lead, probably on his ear, he will hit the turn and as long as he is fit, he should run away from this field. The best of the day.
Race 7. The Australian Guineas
This is a very hard race with plenty of chances. It has been made a little easier with the absence of Solicit who looked a massive chance in this race had she have run. Without her we have the Cox Plate winner Shamus Award; the forever running on Criterion and last start winner Thunder Fantasy. Eurozone almost beat the flying Moment of Change first up, while the Quarterback has been screaming for 1600m and Flemington. However the verdict has to be No.5. Hucklebuck from No.6. Prince Harada with No.7. Rock Hero together with No.10. The Quarterback being the best long shots. Winner – Hucklebuck!
Race 8.
No.6. Miracles of Life. This filly gets one more chance to prove she was not just a fairy-tale two-year-old. The form out of the Blue Diamond that she won is strong (Guelph for example) and there is no reason why she should not have come on. Yes she did not come up in the spring, but that is not out of the ordinary for a filly, especially after a stellar two-year-old season. She is fast, she is brave and with Corey Brown aboard she should find some room and sprint well. If she is right she will be hard to beat, but if she gets rolled, it will be back to the drawing board for the connections.
Race 9.
This is the hardest race of the day, apart from the Guineas. Akzar and Extra Zero are in nice form, but we have potentially seen the best of them already this time in. No.1. Tanby will go well fresh; he has a tonne of weight, but this is certainly not a Cox Plate. The other good chance has to be No.5. Desert Jeuney. This boy was great last start and the 2000m and Flemington will suit him down to the ground. Tanby and Desert Jeuney each ways should yield some kind of result, but in the quaddie go wide (maybe leave out the jumpers) and good luck!
By Zeb Armstrong
