Saturday is a great day at Caulfield with three Group One races and plenty of other Group races. Here is a rundown of the three Group Ones.
Race 6. The Futurity Stakes
This race has been won by most of the best middle distance horses to ever run in Australia. The field is very small and maybe even a touch thin but there are still a couple of potential superstars in the race.
Sizzling looks to have comeback well under the new banner of Chris Waller racing. He is already a Group One winner and looks well placed here despite it being his first time at Caulfield. Moment of Change is unbeaten over 1400m at Caulfield; he has won two Group One races this track and trip and is the deserved favourite. Bull Point won first up and will continue to be hard to beat for the remainder of his career while Pinwheel is never far away.
The best of the stayers would probably be Sertorius from Polanski and then there is Smokin’ Joey who took all before him last preparation.
Verdict:
Winner – 9. Bull Point. This horse was great first up and before that at his last start over 1400m, he was unbelievable in the Golden Rose. Eurozone almost beat Moment of Change this track and trip two weeks ago and one would have to think that Bull Point is both better and fitter than Eurozone. He will sit off the early pace and unleash late.
Hardest to beat – 1. Sizzling. This entire needs to win this as to ensure his stallion value. There will probably not be an easier Group One race for him either. There are only potential superstars in this race; no actual proven champions like Atlantic Jewel or More Joyous. If the pace is on up the front and the track is playing fair then Sizzling can fly home and be very hard to hold out at nice odds.
Best longshot – 8. Polanski. We have been waiting now for three weeks for this Derby winner to return to racing. He will have residual fitness on his side and he is speedy enough early in a prep to be competitive in this race.
Race 7. The Blue Diamond Stakes
All the talk for months has been about Earthquake and Rubick as it should have been. They are impossible to split and are clearly the two hardest to beat. However Nayeli is the value in the race and she has not put a foot wrong to date in her career. She won over the same track and trip as Earthquake in roughly the same time at her last start. Yes the races were a week apart, but the times are still even so slightly relevant. The two other major chances have to be Nostradamus and Chivalry; for mine the race stops with these five runners. Chivalry looks a middle distance horse, as does Nostradamus; in fact Nostradamus looks a lock for the VRC Sires’ if he is to head in that direction.
Verdict:
Winner – 13. Nayeli. It will be hard to beat the two hot pots but from a nice barrier and with the greatest trainer of two-year-olds in the world in charge and a win at Caulfield under the belt, Nayeli is the value in the race. She has plenty of talent; however it can’t be stressed enough that the two favourites will be very hard to beat.
Hardest to beat – 12. Earthquake. Every form analyst in Australia can use different stats to make a case for either Rubick or Earthquake. However plainly based on the two Preludes from two weeks ago, Earthquake looked the more impressive. The wide barrier for Earthquake is not a worry considering how much gate speed she has shown in her career to date. She is also better value than Rubick so she gets the nod as the preferred favourite.
Best longshot – 5. Nostradamus. This colt along with Chivalry came from the back in the Prelude to not be beaten far at all by Rubick. They had every right to run on after a hot early speed. This race is 100m longer which will suit both colts down to the ground. Nostradamus gets the nod as the best roughy just.
Five good chances that includes two hot pots, a Waterhouse runner and two very progressive colts. It promises to be a great race and perhaps some kind of box trifecta with these five horses might be the way to go.
Race 8. The Oakleigh Plate.
Good luck with this one! 18 horses over a fairly small spread of weights all dashing over 1100m at Caulfield. Interestingly enough, there is only one Group One winner in the field and that is the impossible to catch Bel Sprinter. Bel Sprinter is also one of five horses that are first up and the fresh horses do have a good record in this race. There are seven last start winners and four more horses that have won within their last two starts. We have mares, fillies, stallions and geldings; we have improving horses, proven sprinters, lightly weighted speedsters and plenty of horses that are in very nice form. If the track is playing fair, a dead heat with an early leader and a storming home swooper could be on the cards. It is a stunning race and the only other thing to add is that Lankan Rupee, the logical favourite is maybe just a little short considering the depth of the field.
Verdict:
Winner – 9. Knoydart. This horse was brilliant at Mornington where he rounded up the field on a horribly leader biased track as if they were standing still. He is still improving and despite this race being short of his best distance, he still looks very hard to hold out at the each way odds.
Hardest to beat – 1. Bel Sprinter. The only Group One winner in the race. The only time this boy has ever jumped fairly and had even luck he beat Snitzerland in the Group One Galaxy in Sydney. He will be just warming up in this race for the T.J. Smith in Sydney in a few months, but he certainly will be flying home late.
Best longshot – 15. Shamal Wind. This mare was the favourite in this race last year after getting kicked behind the barrier and being pasted fit to run. She ran second last. Since then she has been forever running on in her races and her last start win was probably the best of her career. She will be swooping home like the other two selections so a fair track is essential.
By Zeb Armstrong
