Newmarket / Australian Cup day at Flemington on Saturday will be a ripper. Nine races all jammed full of good horse including potentially two of the three best WFA horses in Australian and most of the best sprinters. It is a hard day so each way all day, but with a perfect track, racing should be very fair and the best horse will always have its chance.
Race 1.
Winner – 2. Top Sight $5.50. A great winner on debut then was beaten only three lengths by Earthquake in the Blue Diamond Prelude. That is good enough form to be very hard to beat in this race.
Hardest to beat – 1. Ygritte $2.80. A brilliant winner on debut then was not beaten far by Mossfun at her last start. That is too very good form heading towards this race.
Best longshot – 6. Muscovado $9.50. You can never discount Gai Waterhouse in a two-year- old race and this filly has trialled well twice before not being beaten too far by Ygritte on debut.
Race 2.
Winner – 13. Son Senoras $6.00. This horse won a trial by 12 lengths and then first up she won as easy as you will ever see. The track was in her favour that day, but it still was a great win. She looks one of the best each way chances for the day.
Hardest to beat – 9. Politeness $5.50. This filly did not really come up last preparation, but before that she was as highly fancied as Guelph. She has had the better of Gregers in their clashes to date and meets that galloper better at the weights. If she brings her best she will be very hard to beat.
Best longshot – 10. I am Titanium $12. Form around Paximadia and Hucklebuck is good form indeed for a race like this. At the big price, this colt is worth an each way bet.
Race 3.
This is a time honoured race that has a great field this year. The top three are the three main chances and all almost have an equal chance of winning.
Winner – 1. Boomwaa $4.80. The established flying machine that loves Flemington. He is the equal top rated horse but gets the nod due to the each way odds.
Hardest to beat – 2. Marcado $3.60. After a terrific win on debut at Flemington, this speedster just looks a perfect horse for the 1400m. He will lead, kick and be very hard to run down.
Best longshot – 3. Awesome Rock $4.20. Hardly a longshot at $4.20, but this colt appears to be the only other genuine chance with the top two. The recommended bet would be a three way quinella but it won’t be paying thousands.
Race 4.
Winner – 9. Godspiel $19. This horse has been breaking down the door for a long time now and despite this being a very deep race, this mare has definite claims to win this race at a huge price. She was unlucky at Sandown last start and she also has plenty of good form around some really nice mares.
Hardest to beat – 6. Text’n Hurley $3.50. After a very unlucky run two starts ago, this mare saluted with style at Moonee Valley last start. She looked out on her feet but she ended up rallying and winning nicely. Flemington will suit and she will be very hard to beat.
Best longshot – 7. Are There Any $7. This mare had knocking on the door for a while before her last start win. This race is harder but she is never far away.
Race 5.
Winner – 1. Miss Rose de Lago $8.50. The Perth visitor needed the run first up and still ran very nicely. She is unbeaten second up and despite running into a superstar in this race, she may well be a superstar herself.
Hardest to beat – 2. Solicit $2. This filly was wonderful first up winning in tremendous fashion. She has reportedly come on since that race and don’t be surprised if she is most tipsters best of the day on Saturday. She is even money whereas Rose de Lago will almost get to double figures and there is not that much difference in their ability.
Best longshot – 3. Marianne $7. This mares last five starts have resulted in three seconds and two wins. She was knocked off as the hot pot last start, but she can surely bounce back and she is five times the odds this week.
Race 6. The Newmarket Handicap
Winner – 3. Samaready $4.60. It can’t be overlooked that this mare last time in second up ran past Buffering like he was nailed to the fence. Buffering would be favourite in this race. She was ok in the Lightening and she will relish the extra 200m and on pure class she might just be one of the best horses in the race and we can get comfortable each way odds.
Hardest to beat – 1. Moment of Change $10. This gelding has never missed a place up the Flemington straight. He almost won this race last year and since then he has won two Group One races. He does love the Caulfield 1400m but he also does thrive up the straight. He has a good horse’s weight but he can’t be left out.
Best longshot – 10. Knoydart $10. In the Oakleigh Plate this gelding came from miles back to run a nice 3rd. He was beaten easily by Lankan Rupee but the extra 100m will really suit and he will be storming home on a very low handicap and looks very hard to hold out.
Race 7. The Australian Cup
Winner – 1. Fiorente $2.20. This horse is the best middle distance staying type in Australia. He loves Flemington, he loves the 2000m and he has come on (reportedly) remarkably since his great first up win. However he can’t just win on natural class like he did first up. If he is not getting close to 95% he might struggle to catch Shamus Award. There is also a chance that Shamus Award is the new Kingston Town so that is a risk also. However, providing that Fiorente is fit and Shamus Award is just a gun, not an immortal, Fiorente will win.
Hardest to beat – 8. Shamus Award $4.40. He beat Fiorente in the Cox Plate. He beat everyone in the Cox Plate and then again in the Australian Guineas. He is a gun, his future is secure and he has a chance to be an immortal WFA champion. He will be very hard to beat and at double Fiorente’s odds he will be well fancied no doubt.
Best longshot – 5. Star Rolling $14. In a great WFA race this handicapper will surely struggle to beat the top two; but he is a nice horse that will relish the trip and we have not seen his best yet.
Race 8.
Winner – 1. Sea Moon $8.00 The best horse in the race by a long way. He should have residual fitness from his Melbourne Cup campaign and he will most likely be turned straight out after this race for another Melbourne Cup tilt in 2014. A stayer resuming wins this race fairly often and if the best horse wins then it will be Sea Moon.
Hardest to beat – 2. Sertorius $2.90. A great first up run behind Moment of Change in a 1400m Group One. He was primed for a first up run that day after a long spring, but these staying types can often come up flat second up. He is way under the odds, and yes he can win, but maybe $5 might be a better price considering Sea Moon is one of the best horses in the world.
Best longshot – 6. Desert Jeuney $17. This gelding gets a mention for the 4th He will win one day and it is better to have $1 each way on him every start rather than try and pick when he will put his best foot forward. He is very talented and a win really is not far away.
Race 9.
Winner – 11. Sistine Demon $4.40. A bomb proof horse that gets out in front and kicks hard. He is very hard to get past and if given his own way, he never gets beaten. He is also one of the best each way bets of the day.
Hardest to beat – 9. Rhythm to Spare $4.40. By Saturday, everyone will be tipping this horse once they go through the form. He indeed will be very hard to beat, but we know Sistine Demon will be out in front, whereas this horse could be anywhere. But if he gets clear running late in the race, he will be flying home.
Best longshot – 3. Smokin’ Joey $11. Second up last time he won at $35 then went on to almost win a Group One. $11 seems like spoil at the minute and he is worth a small each way go.
By Zeb Armstrong
