Warwick Farm this Saturday will hold the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes. The Warwick Farm track was rated a Dead 5 on Thursday but with fine weather forecast, the track should be close to Good 3 on raceday.
Super Saturday at Flemington with the Group 1 double of the Australian Cup – Newmarket Hcp. Flemington was rated a Dead 4 and with sunny weather forecast for the next couple of days, the track should also be close to Good 3 on raceday.
In the Group 2 Kewney Stakes (Melbourne Race 5, 1400m), Norzita looks very hard to beat. The Flight Stakes winner last spring has come back this preparation in terrific fashion. She was resuming in the Typhoon Tracy two weeks ago over 1200m and she was cruising up rounding the home turn and ran away from the field in the last 100m. At set weight on Saturday over 1400m, she is the anchor bet for the day and is very hard to beat.
The first Group 1 of the meeting, the Newmarket Handicap (Melbourne Race 6, 1200m) has been dominated by the best sprinters high up in the weight in recent years with winners such as Black Caviar, Takeover Target and Hay List winning last year. This year, that horse seems to be the Peter Moody-trained Moment Of Change.
Peter Moody has declared that Moment Of Change is the second best sprinter in his stable after the 4YO finished a great 2nd to Black Caviar in the Lightning Stakes. And the Lightning Stakes is the definitive form guide to the Newmarket as 7 of the past 8 winners came through the Lightning Stakes.
The two West Australian horses, Luckygrey and Barakey are facing a big task as no horse in the last 95 years has won the Newmarket first up from a spell. I believe the dark horse in the race could be the Kelly Schweida-trained Better Than Ready. This 3YO has been racing very consistently and though it’s a hard task to follow the footsteps of Placid Ark, Schillaci and Weekend Hussler as 3YO Newmarket winners, Better Than Ready has only got 50.5kg and with proven big race rider Craig Williams on his back. Better Than Ready could well be the knock out horse.
My verdict is that Moment Of Change is still the one to beat in the Newmarket as all figures and statistics are pointing to him as the likely winner.
In the Group 1 WFA Australian Cup (Melbourne race 7, 2000m), favourite Green Moon is having his second up run since his Melbourne Cup campaign. He ran well 1st up finishing 4th in the 1400m Futurity Stakes. But history has proven that it is no easy task for stayers to come back and win WFA races at a shorter trip. The only two Melbourne Cup winners to win a WFA Australian Cup in the same season were champion mares Makybe Diva and Let’s Elope.
The Anthony Freedman-trained Mawingo looks well placed in the Australian Cup. He’s a proven WFA winner over 2000m having won the Doomben Cup over this distance last season. His 1st up second behind All Too Hard was impressive. From barrier 5, Craig Williams will be able to park him 4th or 5th on the fence. Currently at $8.50, Mawingo represents good value in the Australian Cup.
By Owens Wong, Editor
