The big Victoria Derby meeting is one of the best days of racing in the Australian Racing calendar. The Flemington track was rated a Dead 4 on Thursday. With cloudy weather forecast for Friday and Saturday, the track should border on Good 3 and Dead 4.
The main feature for the meeting is, of course, the Victoria Derby (Melbourne Race 6, 2500m). All the runners in the field have never run over the trip before so there’s a bit of guess work involve in picking the winner. Race favourite It’s a Dundeel has been the most impressive one in terms of quality and staying potential. He wasn’t suited at the tight turning Mooney Valley and the slow pace last start. With faster pace in the Derby and the spacious Flemington track will suit It’s a Dundeel nicely. Looking at the way he won the Spring Champion Stakes, coming from near last to overhaul Proisir and the fact that he’s out of a Zabeel mare have given us every indication that he will run the trip right out. I believe his current odds of $2.70 is still good value.
In the Wakeful Stakes (Melbourne Race 3, 2000m), there are only 2 winning chances in straight rating terms, and they are the placegetters in the Thousand Guineas, Dear Demi and Zydeco. They both came from a long way back in the Thousand Guineas and Zydeco was beaten a nose by Dear Demi for 2nd. The 2000m in the Wakeful will suit right up to Zydeco’s alley. And there is a 2.5kg turnaround in weight in Zydeco’s favour in the Wakeful. On weight and measure, Zydeco looks the winner.
In the Coolmore Stud Stakes (Melbourne Race 4, 1200m), race favourite Snitzerland has been unbeaten in 4 starts this preparation. Last start in the Sapphire Stakes, Snitzerland had to call on all her courage to fend of Fire Thunderbolt and the fast finishing Sizzling. I have a feeling that Snitzerland might have come to the end of her preparation. On the other hand, Sizzling was having his first up run in the Sapphire (beaten only 0.5 length), and he will only strip fitter on Saturday. The Flemington straight six would really suit his swooping style. At $4.20 fixed odds, Sizzling is my pick for the Coolmore.
Ocean Park is all the rage in the Mackinnon Stakes (Melbourne Race 5, 2000m). And so should he as Ocean Park has been the dominant Weight-For-Age galloper this Spring. He has won 4 straight Group 1 races including the Makfi Stakes in New Zealand, then the Underwood Stakes, Caulfield Stakes, culminating to his last start victory in the Cox Plate. Really Ocean Park has a stranglehold on the Mackinnon. But at $1.55 fixed odds, it is a no betting race.
By Owens Wong, Editor
