The final day of the BMW Sydney Carnival will be held at Royal Randwick this Saturday featuring the Group 1 Sydney Cup & the Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
The Randwick track has been rated a Dead 4 on Thursday and with fine and sunny weather in Sydney. the track should end up in the Good range on raceday.
In the opening event (Sydney Race 1, 2000m), the Frank Packer Plate is a good horses race. Plenty of good young horses had won this race and gone on to become multiple Group 1 winners. Past winners include horses like Bold Rancher, Dodge, Juggler, Clangalang and the most impressive of them all, Might and Power who won this race in 1997 by 6 lengths. As we all know, Might and Power had gone on to win the Caulfield – Melbourne Cups double later that year.
This year, that horse seems to be Toydini. This Guy Walter-trained 3YO has been in terrific form this preparation winning twice from three starts. His last start victory over the Randwick mile was impressive as he was asked to carry 58.5kg and won the race by almost 4 lengths. The step up to 2000m looks perfect for him and at set weight, Toydini looks the winner. Toydini will be odds on but he will win.
In the Emancipation Stakes (Sydney Race 3, 1600m) I like another Guy Walter trained horse in Skyerush. This mare has a good record over 1600m and she loves Randwick having won three times and placed twice from six starts at that track. And her last start victory, also over the Randwick mile, by defeating another good miler in Alma’s Fury was full of merit. From barrier 2, Blake Shinn should be able to ride Skyerush up on the pace without spending much energy. The New Zealand visitor Xanadu is the current race favourite and she also has a good record over the 1600m. But Randwick could be a tricky track for horses who race on it the first time. Given Skyerush’s track record at Randwick, I am sticking with her.
In the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Sydney Race 4, 2000m), most of the older horses in this field have lost form. And that left It’s A Dundeel with a much easier task. The 3YO has been in devastating form winning his last 3 Group 1 starts. He won his last start in the Australian Derby by 6 lengths being hard held. Regardless of where he settles in the race, I believe he’ll blow this field away. Currently, punters can only get $1.45 at the fixed odds market. It’s A Dundeel is short, but sweet.
In the main feature of the day, the Group 1 Sydney Cup (Sydney Race 6, 3200m), Tremec is a progressive stayer racing through his grade this preparation, winning four of his last five starts. He put up a good effort in winning the Chairman’s Handicap (2600m) two weeks ago. However I am slightly concerned whether he has been weighted too close to Kelinni. Tremec will carry 54.5kg whereas the Chris Waller-trained Kelinni has been allotted 57kg. Kelinni is a class stayer having finished 4th in last year’s Melbourne Cup. Two starts ago, he ran a great race to finish 4th in the BMW and he came out last week winning at Randwick carrying 60kg. Kelinni looks prime to run a strong two mile and is the horse to beat in the Sydney Cup.
By Owens Wong, Editor
