How do we go about finding winners at Rosehill on Saturday when the entire city of Sydney and indeed the entire east coast has been getting flogged by rain for two weeks? The key would be to look for wet trackers, but that theory is fraught with danger; some wet trackers like a heavy 8 but not a heavy 10 and many horses that might be gun wet trackers have never even ran on a wet track.
Maybe the best theory is to follow the Gai Waterhouse runners. Why? Despite the theory that Gai’s horses do not perform as well when she is overseas herself, it appears the stable does not believe this. On Saturday there are 12 acceptors from the Waterhouse stable; when Gai travels abroad she is not off the phone for more than a few minutes for most of the day. She knows exactly how all the horses are going and she knows exactly how the training tracks and the track on Saturday’s is playing. 12 is the biggest amount of acceptors Gai has had at one meeting in a long time and she obviously feels she has plenty of chances on the wet track. It appears she is right.
Pitcrew (race 1 number 3). One start for one win on a slow track but it was a very dominant win against good opposition. The current race favourite and an undisputed chance.
Tamariz (race 2 number 3). Three career starts for a win and a second. The win was on a heavy track. A very versatile gelding that represents great value at its current price of $11.
Danas Best (race 2 number 7). A staying prospect that has recently run a nice second in a shorter race at Randwick on a slow track. Danas Best has never been on a heavy track but his breeding and form on the slow indicates it should not cause too much trouble.
Charing Cross (race 3 number 1). This gelding is a bit of a grinder that can take a few runs to get to his best. He has had two starts on the heavy for just one third so the track might be a bit of a risk. However he can pull out an amazing run from time to time so maybe just watch the market.
Reuben Percival (race 5 number 2). Maybe Gai’s best of the day. Reuben Percival is jumping from the 1400m straight to his best distance of 2400m. He won this race last year on a slow track and he has had five starts on a heavy track for a win and two placings. In this race last year he had 54kg and this year he has 59.5kg so that is a little concern but the old boy does have class and is tough as they come.
Masahiko (race 8 number 9). A last start winner against a very short priced favourite. This gelding lead from start to finish on that occasion and displayed a real will to win in the straight. Two starts on the heavy for one second place.
Scarborough (race 8 number 15). This gelding his talent but is just a little inconsistent. He has had just the one start on the heavy for a placing and being down on the minimum will definitely help on the wet track. A rough place chance.
Race 9. At this stage Gai has five runners in this race.
Kinnersley (race 9 number 1). A very talented gelding that has won multiple Group and listed races. 60kg on a heavy track is clearly the biggest hurdle this boy will have to overcome, but he is tough. Really tough. Kinnersley has only had one previous start on the heavy for an unplaced finished. It will be a remarkable win if he is to get past the post first.
Kontiki Park (race 9 number 2). Pretty much in the same boat as Kinnersley except Kontiki Park has had six starts on the heavy for a win and a second. Again the 60kg will be the biggest problem.
Travolta (race 9 number 10). The best Waterhouse chance in this race. First up last time the gelding won a 1300m race against really good opposition. He has never seen the heavy but has been flying on the heavy tracks at trackwork.
Samui Lad (race 9 number 13). A tough front runner that can hold on for a long time. One start on the heavy for nothing and really this boy generally takes a few starts to get to his best form.
O’Reilly’s Prize (race 9 number 18). A horse with plenty of ability that has not really hit his straps yet. He is bred to get over more distance and he should not mind the heavy track despite having only been on it once. Maybe wait until he gets to the 2000m and beyond.
There are a few of these runners who have not really had much experience on a wet track. That is not to say they won’t handle it and Gai when she gets her way, has never scratched a horse due to a barrier or the track conditions.
Need the run…
Charing Cross, Scarborough, Kinnersley, Samui Lad, O’Reilly’s Prize.
Tamariz, Kontiki Park.
Each Way chances…
Danas Best, Masahiko, Travolta.
Pitcrew, Reuben Percival.
By Zeb Armstrong