Is $4.55 good value for the More Joyous / Pierro / Overreach treble? When was the last time one trainer trained three Group One winners in a row? $4.55 seems very short for one trainer to complete a Group One treble on one day. But on looking at the races a little closer it seems $4.55 might be really good value. Consider…
If the Queen Of The Turf was a handicap More Joyous would have 61kg, instead she has 57kg, the same as all the other mares in the race.
More Joyous has won this race the last two years. Last year the next best mares in the race were Red Tracer, Lights Of Heaven and Kings Rose. More Joyous won this race very easily as the $1.55 favourite. Red Tracer is the second favourite on Saturday and it is hard to see that mare turning the tide on More Joyous.
More Joyous is the second best mare in the country and maybe Australia’s best middle distance mare. Black Caviar is not in this race, so on basic logic from barrier one, More Joyous should just win. She is definitely the best chance of the treble and thus her price is the shortest.
Apart from Hot Danish running second on a very heavy track, the Queen Of The Turf has recently been won by the best mare in the race. Typhoon Tracy, Forensics and Divine Madonna all won this race when they were clearly the best horse in their respective races. More Joyous is the clear best horse in Saturday’s edition.
This filly in NSW has won a trial by 6 lengths, and two races in a row by a combined 10.5 lengths. The only other horses in this race to win two races in a row are the colt Criterion who won the Black Diamond in Canberra and the Todman. These two wins were by a combined total of 0.5 lengths. Rudd Awakening has won three in a row and four out of five but this New Zealand form is at best a little dicey. Barrier 18 also hurts the chances of this Kiwi visitor.
Since the Slipper started being the centre of conversation, many experts have been saying how the fillies have the wood over the colts and geldings this year. Overreach has hopelessly beaten the second or maybe third best filly in the race, the Victorian Villa Verde. If the best colt or gelding is only as good as the second best filly then Overreach with even luck should win.
Barrier 1 is perfect for a horse that can lead or just sit behind them and has the clear best turn of foot in the race. However the Golden Slipper is a 1200m scamper for two-year-olds worth one and a half million dollars more than the Doncaster Handicap. Anything can happen in this race and that is why Overreach is $2.10.
Despite this filly being the best performed in the race and looking to have the race at her mercy, there are some variables like the bottom weight trained by Peter Moody and Gai’s other two. $2.10 is maybe just a little short and Overreach is the most venerable of the three. Yet, she will run really well, and with even luck and a good jump she will be very hard to beat.
This colt is the clear second best horse in Australia. The way he held out More Joyous in the Canterbury Stakes was one of the best wins seen in Sydney since Black Caviar got past Hay List two years ago. Pierro can lead or come from back in the field and under the autumn weight for age scale he has a huge advantage on the older horses.
In the Canterbury Stakes at what is not an ideal distance, Pierro smashed Happy Trails and safely held Solzenitsyn. First up in the Hobartville Pierro beat Rebel Dane while being a little fat and having no blinkers for the first time. These three horses are three of the main chances behind the star colt in the George Ryder on Saturday. Then there is Shoot Out; this gelding beat Monton by an inch in the Chipping Norton at Warwick Farm. Monton would be $31 in this race. If Shoot Out could only just beat that horse, he would have had to improve about 5 lengths to beat Pierro on this weekend.
At his last start Pierro beat More Joyous at her pet distance. None of these horses in the George Ryder on Saturday are anywhere near as good as More Joyous. Pierro is simply better than them. From barrier 7 he should be able to get a nice place in about 4th or 5th and grind his opponents into the ground. $1.55 is the best value of the potential Gai treble. Pierro really is almost as good a chance as More Joyous; it is just the fact that he is three-years-old and running against older proven horses that he is a touch longer. But he is a star; he beat a harder field at his last start and should win on Saturday.
$4.55 is short, and Overreach is the wildcard but More Joyous and Pierro are in the top five best horses in the land and they both will be very hard to beat on Saturday. So should we take the $4.55? Why not! It will be great to see the Lady Trainer get three in a row and seeing the best horses win is always a thrill.
By Zeb Armstrong