Well what a race this is! 8 horses all with almost an equal chance. The despised outsider Mic Mac is currently at $17 and he is a multiple Group Two winner that admittedly has not won for four years but back then he beat the likes of Whobegotyou and El Segundo. Both of those horses at their best would be $1.30 in this field.
See The World is at $8 after a disappointing last start but before that the gelding was running really well without winning. This horse has also won on a heavy track in the past.
Said Com was a good last start winner (finally!) but he only beat Mr Armstrong who may be the slowest horse in Sydney and Zaratone that might be the fastest but the weakest. When he finds form he can hold it and he sure is fit after eight runs this time in. $4.20
Nocturnelle is always thereabouts in these types of races but she was thrashed by Said Com at her last start as the $3 favourite. She is currently at $5 but that just might be a little short considering she has not won since October. $5
Whateverwhenever ran a good 5th to Red Tracer in the Group One 1400m race three weeks ago and that is really good form. In October last year this mare beat the well fancied King’s Rose and on her best form she can be right in the finish of this race. $11 and the only other horse with Mic Mac at double figure odds.
Under The Sun from the Waterhouse yard is one of the most consistent horses in Sydney and can win on all track conditions. He was so strong at his last start and will probably start favourite for this race. There is a thought that Waterhouse horses don’t go as well when the Lady Trainer is away, but Gai has set this horse for this race for months and he is clearly fit and ready. $4.50
Dances On Stars is a three-year-old and the consensus this season has been that the three-year-olds are better than the older horses. A second to Sizzling recently at Eagle Farm is a great form reference. $6.50
Disciple has had three starts this preparation for two great wins and a one inch second to the promising Nothing Like Luca. This gelding’s ability to run on from a hot speed is his best credential in winning this race and his consistency is unquestionable. $6.50
So there we have it. Eight horses, the longest being probably the most talented at $17, and all seven other runners are at $11 or less. The weights for this race are interesting also; Disciple is on the minimum of 54kg with Dances On Star (a three-year-old) and Mic Mac, a multiple winner of big races has just 59kg. Basically we have eight horses all under 20/1 and all within 5kg of each other. It is a very hard race to start the quaddie and may even be a field job.
Verdict. Back a few!
4th. Under The Sun. Can win of course, and rarely runs a bad race.
3rd. Dances On Stars. A three-year-old with form around Sizzling. That is good enough form to be very competitive in this race.
2nd. Said Com. He has never won two in a row; that is the only reason he is not on top.
1st. Disciple. The weight is the deciding factor in putting this gelding on top. He can lead or run on and he is the up and comer while we may have seen the best of all the others.
By Zeb Armstrong
