On scanning through the records of this time honoured race, it appears the majority of recent winners were not Group One champions, but rather just good honest Group Two or Three sprinters. Of course Black Caviar and Takeover Target are the exceptions, but even the horses that ran second to them were just good honest battlers. Moment Of Change is a Group One winner, but should he really be the even money favourite? Yosei is the $8 second favourite and even she can be a little inconsistent. Due to two short priced horses, there is plenty of good horses at long odds. Yes, Moment of Change will probably run really well, in fact he runs well everywhere but Sydney, but we are here to try and bet around him. Even a favourite out market might work.
Zamorar has form around some really good horses and he, when conditions are right, can pull out a huge run. He beat Platelet this time last year yet he is more the 4 times Platelet’s odds in this race. He was scratched from the Wangoom in Warrnambool last week in preference for this race, and on sheer ability he has to be in with a genuine each-way chance.
Yosei. She is a three time Group One winner, actually of her four wins, three have been at the top level. She is right down in the weight which is where she usually performs her best. As mentioned, she has won three Group One races; that is the same amount as Hay List and Sea Siren. She has class but she seems to only peak once every year or so. Will the peak be this Saturday? Maybe, she is $8 now, but surely she will get out to $10 on the tote just before the race.
General Truce always runs well and is always at long odds. Saturday is no exception. He is a very honest, tough and genuine sprinter and that is the mix that has produced the winner of this race in most years recently. General Truce can take a position on the speed or come from behind; whatever the tempo, track conditions or weather, this boy always gives his best. He is certainly worth $1 each-way.
Moment Of Change is the logical choice for this race; he has class, is well performed and always runs really well the Victorian way of going. Strangely he never fires in Sydney. Moment Of Change was unlucky in a Newmarket and probably gave Black Caviar her biggest fright since her return from England. Even money just seems a little bit short. The Morphetteville track is a touch weird. Horses seem to get stuck on the rail on occasion and don’t run on. However, all being equal, with equal luck, Moment Of Change will be right there at the end.
Platelet is another who is very honest and continues to run many times per prep and keeps backing up preparation after preparation. She does have 4kg more than Yosei for being one year younger and having just beaten her in a Group One last start. It seems a lot of weight for a one time Group One winner. But she is tough as mentioned and she will do her best. But with the weight, maybe a place is her best chance.
Verdict: Bet around the favourite, but included the favourite in all multiples.
4th. Another tie! The two mares Platelet and Yosei for 4th.
3rd. General Truce. Tough and will be coming late.
2nd. Moment Of Change. Even money is too short for a non-champion in a time honoured Group One race. Takeover Target was not even that short when he won the race a few years ago.
1st. Zamorar. $41 and drifting! But on ability he can give us an each way sight at least.
By Zeb Armstrong