The T.J. Smith Stakes

Black Caviar faces her stiffest test in Saturday’s edition of the Group One T.J. Smith Stakes. In this race, the champ has to hold out…

Hay List. Sure he may be old, tired and maybe still a bit injured but this track and trip two years ago is still the biggest fright Black Caviar has ever got. Hay List is a multiple Group One winner does not mind a slow track.

Bel Sprinter. The win by this horse in the Galaxy two week ago was one of the best wins seen in Australia this year. Sure on this website, we tipped him at $16, but that just added to the glory. If he unleashes similar sections on Saturday, he will get close to Black Caviar.

Rain Affair. A multiple Group Two winner and bombproof on a wet track. Rain Affair will be on the pace, and often a horse that Black Caviar breezes past holds on for a place.

Sea Siren. This mare was very average first up and she will be much improved on that run. A three time Group One winner and at WFA she can make the champion a little nervous in the run.

Decision Time is in good form, Atomic Force is a Group One winner and Title is tough and does not mind the wet. Howmuchdoyouloveme has a touch of class and Epaulette is a three-year-old with form around Pierro. It really is a classy field.

Black Caviar will probably jump at $1.10 on the TAB. That means that she is 10 / 1 on in the old. Therefore if this race was run 11 times, she, based on her odds would win 10 and lose 1. The race has been run 24 times and she has not lost yet. She is the clear best horse in Australia and the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best horses around are not in this race. If Pierro, More Joyous and All Too Hard were in this race, would punters still be keen on Black Caviar? If Black Caviar was not in this race and Pierro was, Pierro would still be favourite and would probably be at $1.60.

Black Caviar should win; she is better than Bel Sprinter at the same levels that a $1.02 football team is better than a $9.00 chance in any code on any given day.

4th. Hay List

3rd. Rain Affair

2nd. Bel Sprinter

1st. Black Caviar

Maybe take a first four with Black Caviar to beat these three and Sea Siren and Atomic Force. Or just watch and enjoy. Remember two years ago when Black Caviar was not as good as she is now and she got passed Hay List in this race? That day, Hay List was the clear second best sprinter in the world and he was fit and on fire. Black Caviar got passed him by 4 lengths.

By Zeb Armstrong


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