The 2017 Melbourne Cup will be held at Flemington on Tuesday. The course proper was rated a Good 3 on Monday and with overcast weather in Melbourne over the next couple of days, Flemington is likely to be racing on a Good track on raceday.
The field consists of 13 Australian-trained horse and 11 Europeans. Let’s have a look at some of the leading chances.
Current cup favourite is the defendant champion Almandin, who will carry 56.5kg, 4.5kg more than last year. Owner Team Williams have reported that Almandin is flying and is expecting him to run a blinder. Without question Almandin is in better form than last year but whether he can cope with the extra 4.5kg remains to be seen.
Team Williams other runners, Johannes Vermeer, did finish a good 3rd in the Caulfield Cup. However he may not have the tactical speed to take advantage of barrier 3 and there have been doubts about his ability to run out a strong 3200m. And Rekindling has only been allotted with 51.5kg, will be ridden by the in-form Corey Brown and has drawn beautifully in barrier 4. But he is only a 3YO by Northern Hemisphere time so we don’t know if he’s seasoned enough to be competitive against these battle-hardened stayers.
Humidor returned with a very high rating when 2nd to Winx in the Cox Plate. But that seemed to be a gut busting run and that could leave Humidor a bit flat in the cup. The two miles could also be a bit of a test for Humidor.
Caulfield Cup winner Boom Time failed in his only run over 3200m in the Sydney Cup earlier this year, but that was ran on a very Heavy track. On a Good track on Tuesday, he’s a good chance with a light weight (53kg including 1kg penalty). And Caulfield Cup form is good form for the Melbourne Cup.
Hughie Morrison-trained Marmelo caught the eye in the Caulfield Cup when flashing home from 3rd last to finish 6th, beaten only 2.7lengths. Marmelo made considerable ground out wide and with the track it was, the other horses were having difficulty doing that throughout that day. Jockey Hugh Bowman was riding track work on Marmelo at Werribee and has reported that Marmelo has improved further since the Caulfield Cup. Reasonably weighted at 55kg, and with a fair pace in the cup, Bowman should be able to slot Marmelo in mid-field one-off-the-fence from barrier 16.
2017 Melbourne Cup prediction:
1st – Marmelo
2nd – Boom Time
3rd – Rekindling
By Owens Wong, Editor
