The Run To The Rose meeting will be held at Rosehill this Saturday. The course proper was rated a Heavy 10 on Thursday and with further showers forecast for the rest of the week, Rosehill will certainly be racing on a Heavy surface on raceday.
The Memsie Stakes meeting will be held at Caulfield this weekend. Caulfield was rated a Dead 4 on Thursday and with light shower forecast over the next couple of days, the meeting is likely to be held on a Dead surface.
The Anthony Cummings-trained Senta Helga (Sydney Race 2, 2000m) has no problem running out a strong 2000m as she had won over this trip last start. Matter of fact, she has never missed a placed over 2000m having won twice & placed once from 3 starts. And she has won her only start on Slow condition. From barrier 8, James McDonald will slid her across to settle behind the pace one off the fence and she’ll be given every chance to win the race. Currently at $11.00 fixed odds, Senta Helga is tremendous value.
Top weight Oh So Adorable is well weighted & will only carry 58.5kg after the 3kg claim from Winona Costin in the Celebrations Handicap (Sydney Race 4, 1100m). The 4YO mare is a winner & has a great strike rate winning 6 races from 12 strats. She has a good record over 1100m & she has won on Heavy track before. I suspect Costin will take the mare straight to the lead & she could be hard to run down over the Rosehill 1100m. Oh So Adorable is at $8.00 fixed odds and that makes the mare a value bet.
Top colts Almalad & Brazen Beau will be resuming in the MTA NSW Run To The Rose (Sydney Race 6, 1200m), but the fitness edge Nostradamus has could prove decisive. Nostradamus already had one run under his belt winning the San Domenico Stakes 2 weeks ago. Though not having raced on wet track before, the Medaglia d’Oro colt is out of a Lion Hunter mare and he is likely to handle the condition on breeding. From barrier 2, Brenton Avdulla will once again tuck Nostradamus just behind the leader and watch him let down strongly in the straight.
The Memsie Stakes is the first Group 1 race of the Spring Carnival (Melbourne Race 8, 1400m) and I believe the Sydney visitor Messene can take home the feature event. The Lonhro 6YO ran a blinder 1st up in the Missile Stakes finishing a short head 2nd to Sweet Idea. Team Hawkes have been trying to avoid the wet tracks in Sydney and have decided to take Messene down south in search for firmer footing. Stepping up to 1400m 2nd up is ideal and Messene has never finished worse than second over the trip. Messene is an exciting horse and is certainly worth following.
By Owens Wong, Editor
