At face value, history does not paint a rosy picture for Jedastar in Saturday’s $750,000 Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning at Flemington.
The Lloyd Kennewell-trained filly is a two-year-old aiming to upstage the older horses, something that has been achieved just three times and not since 1976.
But what history also tells us is, if you’re going to have a crack at the 1000-metre weight-for-age event with a two-year-old, do it with a filly.
15 colts or geldings have contested the race with Misting, in 1958, the only one to fill a trifecta slot.
The other two juveniles to win, Ritmar (1959) and Desirable (1976), were fillies, as were the two others to run a place; Flaunting, who finished third behind Desirable, and Clever Zoe, who had the misfortune of bumping into a champion in Schillaci in 1993.
Jedastar, who will carry just 44kg on Saturday, will become the 15th two-year-old filly to contest the Lightning and the first since Clever Zoe, who is the only filly to have run in it since Century Love finished 12th in 1980.
She won’t be the only filly in the race, though, joined by the Magic Millions and Coolmore Stud Stakes-winning three-year-old Sunlight.
That pair will also be joined by colts Written By, Lean Mean Machine and Graff, who give the three-year-olds a strong chance to strengthen their grip as the most successful age group in Lightning history.
Three-year-olds have won 22 editions; 14 by colts or geldings and eight by fillies. Three-year-olds are on a 13-year run of outs, it should be noted, with Fastnet Rock (2005) the last male to win and Regimental Gal (2004) the most recent filly.
Eleven fillies have run since, with Alinghi’s second placing in 2005 the best result and Warm Love’s third placing in 2011 the only other top-three finish.
It has become a race for the older horses, with the two most recent winners – seven-year-olds Terravista and Redkirk Warrior – the oldest winners of the race since it became a G1 event in 1987.
Two six-year-olds and five five-year-olds have also won since 2006, meaning nine of the past 13 winners have been five or older.
Those resuming have been to the fore, which is no huge shock given the race’s placement as the second Group 1 of the year, with 18 of the past 21 winners having their first run for the campaign.
Seven of the 11 runners engaged on Saturday will be having their first run for 2019, including the top four in BetEasy’s early market – Sunlight, In Her Time, Graff and Osborne Bulls.
The Lightning has been a good race to concentrate on those towards the head of the market with 12 of the 14 winners between 2003-2016 starting $5.50 or shorter, including six favourites.
Mind you, the past two winners have been $15 and $10.
The Verdict: Concentrating on Osborne Bulls and In Her Time as 5YOs who are first-up and at the pointy end of betting, with an edge to last year’s Galaxy winner In Her Time given eight of the past nine Lightning winners had previously tasted G1 success.
– racing.com
