There are a couple of ways to look at Winx’s win under 57kg in last year’s Epsom Handicap, the feature event of Sydney’s showcase spring raceday, which will be run at Randwick this Saturday.
Those looking for reassurance for those up in the weights this year will point to the fact she set a weight-carrying record for a four-year mare when she lumped 57kg to victory.
Only Super Impose – who carried 58.5kg to victory in 1990 and 61kg in 1991 – Filante (57kg, 1996) and Racing To Win (57kg, 2006) have carried at least that weight to victory in the past 30 years.
However, the farcical conditions of last year’s Epsom, when weights were raised 4kg and just 2kg separated the entire field, meant Winx was only 1kg over the lightest-weighted horses in the race.
That’s been in keeping with the trend of Epsom results since the missed edition due to Equine Influenza in 2007.
- Starting from 2008, five winners – Rock Kingdom (54kg), Captain Sonador (52kg), Secret Admirer (52.5kg), Fat Al (52kg) and Boban (53kg) – were on the limit;
- Theseo (51.5kg) and He’s Your Man (52.5kg) were both half-a-kilogram over the limit, with Winx 1kg over;
- In contrast, the winner closest to the limit in the lead-up to EI was Desert War, who won with 50.5kg on a 49kg limit in 2004;
- Desert War was 6.5kg over the minimum when he made it back-to-back wins in 2005 under 56.5kg, while Shogun Lodge (56kg) and Clangalang (56kg) also won spotting the lightest-weighted horses in the race 6.5kg; and
- Racing To Win’s win under 57kg came on a 51.5kg limit, while Excellerator (53kg) was 3.5kg over and Final Fantasy (53.5kg) was 2.5kg over.
The positive for those up in the weights on Saturday is that this year’s Epsom resembles a pre-EI edition more than any other since the year off.
Torgersen and Fabrizio are the only runners on this year’s 50kg limit with just two others – Heavens Above and Vanbrugh, both 51kg – within 1kg of the limit. That means those up in the weights on Saturday aren’t spotting as many rivals as much weight as many topweights have in recent years.
- In 2010, just four of the 20 runners were above the limit and the following year 14 of the 17 runners shared the limit weight. Eleven of the 13 carried the limit in 2009 and there were 10 runners on the lightest weight in 2012; and
- Last year there were nine runners on the limit, the same number as 2013. There were eight limitweights in 2014 and seven in 2008, when a further five were within 1kg of the limit.
MAIN FORM LINE?
- The George Main Stakes is the premier form reference with 13 of the past 30 Epsom winners having had their previous start in the 1600m WFA event; and
- But only two of those have been post-EI, Theseo (2008) and Rock Kingdom (2009). Since that pair, the Bill Ritchie Handicap and Shannon Quality have produced two winners each.
George Main runners this year: Hauraki (2nd), Vanbrugh (4th).
Bill Ritchie runners this year: Sons Of John (won), Torgersen (2nd), Happy Clapper (6th), Mighty Lucky (7th)
Shannon runners this year: Nil.
AGE AND SEX
- Twenty of the past 29 winners have been four years of age including six of the past seven; and
- Mares went 35 years without winning an Epsom between 1976 and 2011, but have won two of the past five.
4YOs engaged this year: Palentino, Le Romain, Mackintosh, Vanbrugh, Torgersen
Mares engaged this year: Heavens Above
WIDE BARRIERS PROMINENT
- As is often the case in big-field handicaps, wide barriers have produced their fair share of winners with 14 of the past 29 winners jumping from a double-digit gate, including six of the eight winners post-EI; and
- Barriers seven (Vanbrugh) and eight (Heavens Above) are the most successful of the past 30 years with four wins apiece. Gate 12 (Mighty Lucky) has supplied three winners.
FANCIED RUNNERS BACK IN FAVOUR
- There were some blowouts between 1986 and 2001 with Chanteclair ($67), Final Fantasy ($51) and Sound Horizon ($41) among five winners at $21 or better;
- The longest-priced winner since Final Fantasy is Captain Sonador, who won at $15 in 2010;
- The past five winners have been single-figure odds, including two favourites; Fat Al ($4.60) and Winx ($3.10).
SICK FOR VICS
- Victoria has not had a winner of the race since John Meagher produced Golden Sword to win in 1993;
- However, the Vics had just four runners – all at $15 or longer – in the nine editions between 2000 and 2009 with Polar Bear’s fourth placing at $17 in 2006 the best result in that time; and
- They have had 10 runners since 2010 with Pinker Pinker, who finished second in 2011, the only one to place.
– racing.com
