The Cox Plate meeting will be held at Mooney Valley on Saturday. The course proper was rated a Dead 4 on Thursday and with fine weather in Melbourne, Mooney Valley will border on Good/Dead on raceday.
Top fillies Lumosty & Tahni Dancer will meet again in the Drummond Gold Fillies Classic (Melbourne Race 3, 1600m). They met in the Thousand Guineas last start where Tahni Dancer had the upper hand at the finish. I was slightly concerned that Lumosty wasn’t making up much ground in the Thousand Guineas and that prompt me to think that maybe Lumosty is not a genuine miler. From barrier 4 on Saturday, Glen Boss will settle Tahni Dancer somewhere outside Lumosty (barrier 2) and keeps her in a pocket. Currently Lumosty is odds-on at $1.75 with Tahni Dancer at $4.50, and at the odds, I have to tip Tahni Dancer.
Nicoscene could be the horse to beat in the Telstra Phonewords Stakes (Melbourne Race 4, 1200m). The Anthony Freedman-trained 3YO loves the Valley with a win & a 2nd from 2 starts. He also has a good record at 1200m with a win & 2 placings from 4 starts at the distance. From barrier 5, Mark Zahra will settle him just behind the leader and he’ll be ready to strike rounding the home turn. $9.00 in the fixed odds market makes Nicoscene a value bet.
Bart Cummings’ old marvel Precedence will try to win the Group 2 Mooney Valley Gold Cup (Melbourne Race 5, 2500m) for the third time but he is facing a task to beat Opinion. The Waller-trained gelding has put in a terrific run last start in the Group 1 ‘The Metropolitan’ finishing 2nd to stablemate Junoob. I believe Opinion has got in light under the race condition (set weights plus penalties) in which he has only been allotted 55kg. The 2500m really suits Opinion and form jockey Zac Purton, who won the Caulfield Cup last week, will be aboard the gelding.
I believe this year’s WFA Championship, the Cox Plate (Melbourne Race 8, 2040m) will be run at a pretty fast pace. The natural leader ‘The Cleaner’ has drawn wide (Barrier 14) and he’ll have to go fast to cross the field. The Lloyd Williams-owned Fawkner is very versatile as he can settle anywhere in a race, and from barrier 4 on Saturday, Fawkner will settle in a beautiful spot behind the pace. The 7YO won well in the Caulfield Stakes last start and invariably the Group 1 race has been a great guide to the Cox Plate. Fawkner won the Caulifeld Cup (2400m) last year so obviously he has the stamina to cope with a high pressure Cox Plate. Jockey Nicholas Hall has been the regular jockey on Fawkner so he knows the gelding well. On form & figures, Fawkner is the logical tip for the 2014 Cox Plate.
By Owens Wong, Editor
